Can a LW 50-59 male go from 242W to 302W in 12 months?

[Olde School]

Hello, everyone.

Not a newbie to the erg, but far from knowing it all. 60 year old long term LW multisport athlete.
My B.Sc. is in Exercise Physiology meaning neither math nor training lingo are scary to me.

I have a good base and have been easing into the WP since the late fall.
My December 1st, 2024 starting use of the WP was 3 sessions per week, initially only doing half durations of each level (e.g. I began with only 20 minutes of L4).
I am now at 3 sessions with full durations. In March I will add a 4th session, then in April a 5th, and have no current plans to do more than that. Life must happen too.
My plan is to steadily ramp things up instead of my historical approach of training like mad and burning out early - thus the dedicated use of the WP.
Each month will start with a 2K test to set the pace for that month's intervals.
Dec 1's test saw 221W or 7:46, RPE 6 but this was really just easing into an early guideline
Jan 1's test saw 234W or 7:38, RPE 8
Feb 1's test saw 242W or 7:33, RPE 8+ but likely had 5bpm in reserve.

I am aiming to go sub7 1 year from now. Pretty sure I can get there as I did 280W or 7:12 after just 3 months of training in 2019.
I would LOVE to approach 6:45 in that same time span of 1 year.

My question is as the title states:
"Can a LW 50-59 male go from 242W or 7:33 to 302W or 7:00 in 12 months?"
also, how about going as far as 338W or 6:45 in that same time span?

I have done the projections and getting to 302W from now requires an average gain of 5W monthly, and getting to 338W is 8W monthly.
I wonder whether the gains will decrease, but will they decrease absolutely? If, for example, I do hold an 8W monthly gain, when shown as a percentage the percentage will decrease from 3.3 (March) to 2.4 (February 2025)

I am really hoping for succinct and knowledgeable replies only

[Jbrown1215]

Welcome! I've heard great things about the Wolverine Plan, namely that it's tough .

While no one can definitively know the answer to your question, and I am certainly no exercise physiologist, empirically speaking, we're very unlikely to see linear gains in power output over time. Assuming you've been back on the rower for ~4-5 months based on your post, you might have a few months left of "newbie" gains left to harvest, but no doubt as you know, the fitter/faster you get, the more difficult each incremental watt will be to find, and you may need to increase your time spent training each week in order to find it.

So is it impossible? I don't think so, but only time will tell if your five sessions a week based on the WP plan will be sufficient to get you there, and if you're willing to adjust/readjust your training plans accordingly to meet your targets.

Best of luck!

[Dangerscouse]

This is really hard question to answer as it's reliant on so many different factors.

Age could possibly be your biggest issue as there could easily be a big difference between 54 and 59, so your benchmark of 280w might be misleading. There are some outliers in terms of 60 year olds and older, with a few of them posting on this forum, but they're the exception to the general rule.

Hopefully you'll achieve it, and at the very least I expect you to get close to it. Best of luck.

[jamesg]

In the C2 rankings there are 60y LWs who show below 7 minutes in a 2k, but not many. A sculling background might help, and about 2M erg meters a year low rate also. We can see their bios.

The ratio ½/2k pace ratio looks about 12% faster in the 500m test; so 1:45 2k would imply pace 1.32 for the ½k. This test can be done any day.

[H2O]

It's going to be very hard and probably not with only three workouts per week. If you only want to row three times per week these should be fairly intense (say 2 AT sessions plus one TR session). It will then take a lot of aerobic base building in addition to that with ideally one such session on the rower. I think 5 workouts per week is the minimum.

[MPx]

Prefer encouragement to bursting bubbles...but some expectation realignment required me thinks - sorry.

The pedant in me can't help noticing the age difference in title vs first line of the post. So we're talking 60+ not 50-59?
No mention of height or weight. 6'2" 74kg different prospect to 5'6" 60kg.
Generally agree with posts above. Certainly poss to be sub 7 - but a big ask. A cursory look at the rankings will show you what's possible and 5 of 129 in the category have managed sub7 this season, no one anywhere near 6:45 and only 1 sub 7 last season. If your past athletic experience is that you're "world class" once you put your mind to something, then of course you can do it but even then 6:45 seems unlikely as the US National record is 6:49 - and has been for the last 12 years - although the World Record is 6:40.

To do all that on just 3 sessions a week is dreamland, but you say you're building to 5 and that makes much more possible. If anything can, the WP will provide a framework to achieve your targets, but its going to be very hard work. Best of luck with it - keep us up to date as it will be great to witness your success.

[Nomark]

I mean this in the nicest possible way, but does it matter? Unless you have a race in twelve months, I would say no

It's nice to have goals, and sub-7 is a great one, but the reality is the goal is surely day-to-day/ month-to-month improvement. Whatever that looks like.

I say that because I am curious what your plans are for the 2k tests each month? To do them all out or aim for an 8W improvement each time? What happens if you feel capable of another few watts, will you hold back? What if you only manage a 5W gain? Is that the plan out the window or do you go for 11W next month, which I imagine will be unachievable.

I think it's good to have a plan because it gives you targets, but as Iron Mike says, everyone has a plan until they get smacked in the mouth, so just be prepared to revise and revisit. You may hit 7mins in 10 months or 15. Either way 12 is an arbitrary target so just keep working while you see improvements and if you hit a wall, shake things up.

[Tsnor]

There are tons of cycling FTP gain articles that report training plans and outcomes in gained FTP.

Unless you are also gaining rowing efficacy (unlikely), you are asking can your FTP go up 60 watts in a year. The answer for rowing is the same as for cycling, running, x-country ski, etc.

60 watt ftp gain in a year is possible if you are not currently highly trained, it is very unlikely if you are already highly trained. The articles will have the nuances.

Agree with your plan to go to 5 sessions, perhaps total of 10 hours/week working time. Suggest you treat next 10 months as base training. Then drive 2 months of VO2 max workouts leading to your 2K test.

Note FTP keeps going up over time. With a good training plan and reasonable genetics the only question on hitting 7 mins is will it take 12 months or 24. With your B.Sc. is in Exercise Physiology if you've kept current you will know how critical strength training is for someone 60 yo, and will understand zone training.

[Olde School]

"as you know, the fitter/faster you get, the more difficult each incremental watt will be to find"
Yup, this is a major unknown for me, and why I wonder if my aim for increasing watts will be offset by said increases actually leading to a decreasing % of increase (wow, does that make sense to anyone but me?)

"if you're willing to adjust/readjust your training plans accordingly to meet your targets"
absolutely, everything is on the table for change

"Age could possibly be your biggest issue"
59 now, turning 60 this year

"In the C2 rankings there are 60y LWs who show below 7 minutes in a 2k, but not many."
Between WRICH and C2 I've found 22 who have gone under 7 in the past few years, and 1 at 6m30!!! Another at 6m35s
"The ratio ½/2k pace ratio looks about 12% faster in the 500m test; so 1:45 2k would imply pace 1.32 for the ½k. This test can be done any day."
good intel, thank you

"No mention of height or weight."
Walking around weight is 172lbs / 78kg, but as a former wrestler, am confident I can get to 165lbs / 75kg.
177cm / 5'8.75" with a 185 / 6'1" wingspan

"keep us up to date"
wilco

"I mean this in the nicest possible way, but does it matter?"
gosh

"I say that because I am curious what your plans are for the 2k tests each month? To do them all out or aim for an 8W improvement each time?"
'Each month will start with a 2K test to set the pace for that month's intervals.'

"you are asking can your FTP go up 60 watts in a year. The answer for rowing is the same as for cycling, running, x-country ski, etc."
Just watched a video of a German kid (31 lol) who increased FTP by almost 100W in a year, and he started in pretty good shape (as am I). I am aiming high for sure.

"you will know how critical strength training is for someone 60 yo"
Yes, this is a question mark for me. I know that specificity trumps strength, but don't yet have a strength plan. There is no easy access to weights. I am wondering if simply cranking the drag factor all the way up and doing some slow reps would suffice.

[Dangerscouse]

There is no easy access to weights. I am wondering if simply cranking the drag factor all the way up and doing some slow reps would suffice.

I'd recommend bodyweight exercises, resistance bands, TRX (or a cheaper alternative) and a pull up bar as a better alternative. You can get a great workout with this.

[Mike Caviston]

My plan is to steadily ramp things up instead of my historical approach of training like mad and burning out early - thus the dedicated use of the WP.

That sounds like a good plan.

Each month will start with a 2K test to set the pace for that month's intervals.

If you truly intend to follow the Wolverine Plan, that would be unnecessary or even counterproductive. The instructions for Level 1 workouts are simple. Do 500m repeats until you can do eight at 1:45 pace or faster. Then gradually and progressively increase the length of the intervals, making sure the pace is 1:45 or faster, until you can do 4 x 1K at about 1:44.5 pace. That would give you a very good shot at a 7:00 2K. (If you base your expectations for 2K on a single 500m test, you are in for major disappointment.)

I am now at 3 sessions with full durations. In March I will add a 4th session, then in April a 5th, and have no current plans to do more than that. Life must happen too.

Only you can decide how much training you can do, but going sub-7:00 at your age, having never gone faster than 7:12 (years ago), on 5 sessions per week may be possible but I wouldn't put any of my money on it. Full benefit of the Wolverine Plan would require 6-8 sessions per week for 6-8 months of training.

"In the C2 rankings there are 60y LWs who show below 7 minutes in a 2k, but not many."
Between WRICH and C2 I've found 22 who have gone under 7 in the past few years, and 1 at 6m30!!! Another at 6m35s

To be blunt, a lot of those times are bogus or mis-represented (done on slides; interval workouts). I personally only trust times done at live, in-person events.

[milansanremo]

Hello, everyone.

Not a newbie to the erg, but far from knowing it all. 60 year old long term LW multisport athlete.
My B.Sc. is in Exercise Physiology meaning neither math nor training lingo are scary to me.

I have a good base and have been easing into the WP since the late fall.
My December 1st, 2024 starting use of the WP was 3 sessions per week, initially only doing half durations of each level (e.g. I began with only 20 minutes of L4).
I am now at 3 sessions with full durations. In March I will add a 4th session, then in April a 5th, and have no current plans to do more than that. Life must happen too.
My plan is to steadily ramp things up instead of my historical approach of training like mad and burning out early - thus the dedicated use of the WP.
Each month will start with a 2K test to set the pace for that month's intervals.
Dec 1's test saw 221W or 7:46, RPE 6 but this was really just easing into an early guideline
Jan 1's test saw 234W or 7:38, RPE 8
Feb 1's test saw 242W or 7:33, RPE 8+ but likely had 5bpm in reserve.

I am aiming to go sub7 1 year from now. Pretty sure I can get there as I did 280W or 7:12 after just 3 months of training in 2019.
I would LOVE to approach 6:45 in that same time span of 1 year.

My question is as the title states:
"Can a LW 50-59 male go from 242W or 7:33 to 302W or 7:00 in 12 months?"
also, how about going as far as 338W or 6:45 in that same time span?

I have done the projections and getting to 302W from now requires an average gain of 5W monthly, and getting to 338W is 8W monthly.
I wonder whether the gains will decrease, but will they decrease absolutely? If, for example, I do hold an 8W monthly gain, when shown as a percentage the percentage will decrease from 3.3 (March) to 2.4 (February 2025)

I am really hoping for succinct and knowledgeable replies only

Of course you can if you up the training (significantly) and I mean tough intervals at least twice a week... I'm 63 (64 in June) and started rowing for the first time in my life the first week of January. I've done 365,456m so far and did this today.

https://log.concept2.com/share/2503523/98471711

I'll be at 7:00 before this December. I'm also currently 172lbs.

[iain]

Surprised at the certainty of the responses above. Most of us answer questions based on our personal experience. Based on mine I know I won't ever be able to row a sub-7 but might have matched your current performance if starting fairly fit. But there are some very gifted rowers on this site who may not realise that others aren't as genetically gifted as they are and may assume more benefits from a lifetime of training that you may not have. There are 4 key variables:

1) work per stroke needs to be 9.4WMin (at R32) to 10.1 (at R30).
2) you need to have the aerobic base to maintain this strong stroke for the full 2k (broadly VO2 Max)
3) your stroke efficiency will influence how high your VO2 max needs to be to generate the 302W of work ON THE HANDLE
4) you need to cope with the mental demands of pushing yourself that hard for that long (both in 2k and in maintaining tough training for a year).
5) genetics, what you are capable of with optimal training is pre-determined.

There will be gains to be made on all of the first 4, but you will be limited by 5 and how much is not possible to say. But for someone your height 1 may be challenging and R32 for a 60 year old is a tough ask.

Some improvements in 3 are likely, but that depends on how good your stroke currently is. I am approaching 25,000Km on erg, but my technique is still terrible, so be critical of yourself as this is the easiest source of gains.

Don't under estimate 4. This is where most find their limits (ie they never achieve their true physiological potential). As I found out in a recent ultra marathon. When chasing a tough target you need great drive and this requires you to have a clear understanding of a strong motivation to keep going. Personally beating a key benchmark just wouldn't be enough!

Mike (as always) makes some good points. Not least the gap between what you have achieved and what you are aiming at. His prescription is a good one for someone single mindedly chasing a sub-7. But if your real goal is to get as fast as possible in 12 months or so, you might be better to focus on the gradual WP improvements and see where you get to.

In summary, I would expect the gains to drop off quite rapidly and you admit the improvements have partially been from increased effort (ie not just increased fitness / strength). So 8W / month is in my opinion unrealistic and will need to be maintainmed for a few months to average 5W/month average for 12.

I look forward to watching your progress. Good luck.

[nick rockliff]

It's difficult to be able to tell you what's possible and what's not possible especially if what you are trying to achieve hasn't been achieved by most at your age.

Going by what you did in 2019 age 54? And knowing how that additional six years will effect your performance, I'd say getting close to the 2019 result may be possible but difficult. Getting sub 7 and close to 6.45 not probable.

I wish you luck though in your journey.

[Olde School]

Hello, everyone.

Had a tough workout this morning and chuckled at myself when I realized that I was using both the supportive comments to pull me along, and the skeptical comments to push me along!

There are 4 areas currently that I can use to increase my power output:
1) increased workout duration
2) increased piece intensity
3) increased workout frequency
4) improvements in technique

If I didn't adequately emphasize this point - I DO NOT want to burn out. There is a YEAR to go.