Using 7-stroke max to predict 2k time

[row23]

How does one go about using 7-stroke max to predict 2k time? I once saw something about how to do it, but can't seem to find it anymore. I'm trying to get a feel for what my 2k might be in advance of World Indoors.

2k: 8:06, 2:01.5/500m (12/20/2022)
7-stroke max watts: 367 (1/27/2022)
16 y/o female, 5'10 155lbs

[Tsnor]

Wouldn't work well.

Predicting 2K times from 500m is not very accurate because you have 2 major energy systems. Aerobic and Anaerobic. You can be strong in one or the other or both. 2K is 80% aerobic, so can be predicted very well by 5K or 10K which are also >80% aerobic. 500m is more anaerobic, so doesn't tell you that much about 2K times. A 7-stroke max is all anaerobic, so wouldn't tell you anything about 80% of 2K performance.

There are a bunch of online calculators that try to get 2K performance predictions. You can look at what they use for input. There are also some workouts ( 20 X 40 seconds on / 20 seconds off), (8 x 500 on 5 minute centers), etc., that are also good predictors. There are also power curves out there, but the mix of Aerobic and Anaerobic makes scaling from very short intense workouts (like 1 min or 7 stroke or 100m) difficult.

See the recent thread about 6 x 500 viewtopic.php?f=3&t=206687 for more discussion.

EDIT: Here is an example of a coach using max power over 20 seconds to predict 2K performance FOR A TEAM. Note how poorly the predictions worked for each rower, but the average of the 21 rowers (a mix of people strong in aerobic or in anaerobic or both) worked out pretty well. If any of those rowers set their pace by the 2K prediction they would be smoked. For example rower one predicted 2K wattage was 141 watts, actual was 177, etc.) https://www.rowperfect.co.uk/how-to-pre ... 0-seconds/

Here is one of the power curve projection tools. Again it assume an aerobic/anaerobic balance which might not match yours. Plug in 2K times until you get a 10 second number that looks like yours. This will tell you a 2K number, but it will *not* be accurate, don't count on it for your pace. https://ergrowing.com/2k-erg-power-profile-calculator/

[MPx]

Nothing predicts as well as doing one - and you did one a month ago at 2:01.5. Did you think that one well paced? Did you manage to stick to your race plan? That recent outing should tell you more about your current 2k potential than any predictor. If you paced it well (largely flat) then any improvement will be down to how well your training outings have gone. If you paced it poorly (like a fly and die) then there is more potential for some "free" improvement just by getting the pacing right. You are still 4 weeks aways from the test so you could just pick a day this week and give it a go to see if you can do any better than a month ago. Best of luck....

[jamesg]

How does one go about using 7-stroke max to predict 2k time?

Your own result (195/367 = 53%) looks good, no doubt you can use it.

In the C2 rankings you can see various other distance pairs done by the same erger. 2-½k is handy, since if warm we can do a good 500 anytime. Around 70% Watt ratio would indicate good endurance.

[Dangerscouse]

Wouldn't work well.

Predicting 2K times from 500m is not very accurate because you have 2 major energy systems. Aerobic and Anaerobic. You can be strong in one or the other or both. 2K is 80% aerobic, so can be predicted very well by 5K or 10K which are also >80% aerobic. 500m is more anaerobic, so doesn't tell you that much about 2K times. A 7-stroke max is all anaerobic, so wouldn't tell you anything about 80% of 2K performance.

There are a bunch of online calculators that try to get 2K performance predictions. You can look at what they use for input. There are also some workouts ( 20 X 40 seconds on / 20 seconds off), (8 x 500 on 5 minute centers), etc., that are also good predictors. There are also power curves out there, but the mix of Aerobic and Anaerobic makes scaling from very short intense workouts (like 1 min or 7 stroke or 100m) difficult.

+1

Confidence is important for a 2k, as you've got to believe when it's starting to feel too much, but there's no comparison for these two type of sessions, and any confidence you might gain you will probably rapidly lose when you get to halfway.

You really need to make sure any type of predictor is comparable with the discomfort that you'll feel, and a seven stroke test is, imo, only good for a seven stroke test or 100m. Anything more and it's guesswork.

[row23]

Nothing predicts as well as doing one - and you did one a month ago at 2:01.5. Did you think that one well paced? Did you manage to stick to your race plan? That recent outing should tell you more about your current 2k potential than any predictor. If you paced it well (largely flat) then any improvement will be down to how well your training outings have gone. If you paced it poorly (like a fly and die) then there is more potential for some "free" improvement just by getting the pacing right. You are still 4 weeks aways from the test so you could just pick a day this week and give it a go to see if you can do any better than a month ago. Best of luck....

The pacing wasn't terrible; my "realistic" goal for that 2k was a 2:02 split and my "ambitious" goal was a 2:00 split (I had done a 2k a month prior that was an 8:16, so I wanted to drop 8 seconds for an 8:08). However, I started out at a 2:00 and held it for about the first 750-1000, then realized I probably couldn't hold that for the rest of the 2k so I bumped it up. I hit the realistic goal so I was happy with how it went.

Race plan was power 10s every 500 and I stuck to that pretty well. I think I need to work on higher rates, though, because I did this 2k at a 28 and I think I would do better if I could do it at a 29 or 30.

For Worlds, my goal is to hit or break 8 minutes. Fingers crossed for a 7:59.

[Tony Cook]

Nothing predicts as well as doing one - and you did one a month ago at 2:01.5. Did you think that one well paced? Did you manage to stick to your race plan? That recent outing should tell you more about your current 2k potential than any predictor. If you paced it well (largely flat) then any improvement will be down to how well your training outings have gone. If you paced it poorly (like a fly and die) then there is more potential for some "free" improvement just by getting the pacing right. You are still 4 weeks aways from the test so you could just pick a day this week and give it a go to see if you can do any better than a month ago. Best of luck....

The pacing wasn't terrible; my "realistic" goal for that 2k was a 2:02 split and my "ambitious" goal was a 2:00 split (I had done a 2k a month prior that was an 8:16, so I wanted to drop 8 seconds for an 8:08). However, I started out at a 2:00 and held it for about the first 750-1000, then realized I probably couldn't hold that for the rest of the 2k so I bumped it up. I hit the realistic goal so I was happy with how it went.

Race plan was power 10s every 500 and I stuck to that pretty well. I think I need to work on higher rates, though, because I did this 2k at a 28 and I think I would do better if I could do it at a 29 or 30.

For Worlds, my goal is to hit or break 8 minutes. Fingers crossed for a 7:59.

That was a great improvement in a month. I think you’re right with upping the rate but I disagree with the ‘power 10s’. It takes a lot of energy to up a pace when you pretty much red lining it anyway - that energy doesn’t get paid back in overall quicker time. The only time to push harder is at the end when know your going to cross that line.
I suggest having a go at 4 x 1,000m at a flat 2:00 pace all the way, trying for 30SPM. That’s 4 minutes at your race pace. Rest for 6 mins between reps. On the last one, and only the last one, push it harder for the last 200m, if you feel like it.
If you finish each one in 3:59-4:00 then you will be able to hold 2:00 pace for 8 mins.

[MPx]

Absolutely this ^^^^^