Calculator for age-related 2k decline?

[Rowan McSheen]

Is there a formula or calculator to indicate how one's 2k pace declines with age? I haven't done an all-out 2k for a while and I'm not keen on them, tbh. I use the erg for fitness and cardio, not competition. But some workouts pecify a pace based on 2k (eg the Rowalong sessions).

I've just found out the hard way that on short intervals I've been overcooking it. So if I did 2k at 8:08 five years ago at age 57, is there a ball park figure for what I would do today? Assuming training level, general health etc, are broadly the same.

I know these things are one size tends to fit most, but curious.

[winniewinser]

If you know your current PB on a couple of other PBs you can get a ballpark using this calculator....

https://www.freespiritsrowing.com/forum ... -predictor

Others use 8x500/2'R as a barometer.

Otherwise you just have to bite the bullet and do one.

[Sakly]

Otherwise you just have to bite the bullet and do one.

And this ^^^ is the most accurate. There are so much dependencies, it makes no real sense to build a plan based on a guess as a plan typically has the goal of improvement.

[Rowan McSheen]

Seems there's a long conversation about this on the Health forum. I'll take a look. As you were, guys.

[jamesg]

Is there a formula or calculator to indicate how one's 2k pace declines with age?

Probably. My 2k decay has been from 7:10 (280W at 28) at age 62y to 8:45 (155W at 23) at 82y.

155/280 = 0.55 and if X^20 = 0.55, X = 0.97; 3% lower power and 1% lower speed per year, average.

[MPx]

As James's actual numbers demonstrate, I've seen the claim of "3% loss of power per year from age 60" bandied about and repeated, but have seen no actual source or evidence for it, so could easily be a 220-age style myth. But armed with the info, I think you should try a 2k at predicted pace to verify for yourself. You'll either achieve or not and that will tell you more - if as you say, you're still "in training" then absolutely nothing to lose.

[nick rockliff]

It's a tough question with so many variables to take into consideration it's probably impossible to answer.

I've been doing this for 20 years and still asking myself why I'm slower now than I was when I was in my 40s

[Tsnor]

Plenty of POPULATION level age handicapping info. You can use the US ROWING handicap formula given here to estimate 500m split change with age across the rowing population. https://analytics.rowsandall.com/2018/0 ... ng-system/

Per the USROWING handicap formula age 57 vs age 62 is about 7 seconds per 500M so 28 second difference. 8:08 becomes 8:36. Or your 2K split of 2:01 becomes 2:08. But there is a lot of slop in the "assume you behave like an average person" and "assume your physical condition is the same except for age related effects".

Suggest you do 40 second on, 20 second off intervals at what you think is your 2K pace. It's a little easier than a 2K and if you can do twenty sets of 40 on, 20 off (20 X 40/20) then your pace for the 40-on is an excellent indicator of 2K time. This is also a good 20 minute workouts.

Alternatively, if you think you are going too hard on the intervals, then just go slower. Just pick a slower 2K base time.

[jamesg]

So if I did 2k at 8:08 five years ago at age 57, is there a ball park figure for what I would do today

Suggest you check ergdata to see what you are doing now. You can see average force. If you can hold say 40kg (400N) at rate 28, your power will be about 400*28/60 = 185W with a 1m net stroke and 2k not far off your legacy time. May need some training with the same stroke (185/28=6.6W-min) but at lower ratings in the UT range, 18-23, 120-150W.

A shorter stroke than 1m will need harder pulls and or higher rating, both worth avoiding, so some stroke length/style development may help.

[Cyclingman1]

I've only been at this erg stuff for 11 years. Like Nick, I've watched my decline but still have a hard time accepting it. Realistically, almost from the time I started, injuries/surgeries have caused numerous setbacks. I would like to have improved in the early yrs, but it seems like I'm constantly facing an uphill climb. When one starts calculating percent power and times decline over a period, a lot depends on starting and ending points. I for one have good seasons and bad seasons, so depending on what is picked those numbers can be somewhat different.

In this case I'll present my "worst" numbers. From 2012 to 2022 my power has slipped by right at 2% per yr and times have increased by 0.76% per yr. That is 6:40.7, 348, age 66, 2012 to current 7:11.6, 279, age 76, obviously for 2K. If I picked last yr, 2021, 7:02.6, 297, I could come up with better numbers. Regardless, I have to admit I feel the decline. Rowing at 1:40 ten yrs ago wasn't too difficult, now that kills me. I can't say as I use calculated decline numbers to guide my rowing. I just go with how I'm feeling today, that is, am feeling powerful or dead. I keep looking for those powerful days.

[adccl8z]

I read somewhere, possibly from a link on this forum, 2k decline averaged about 2secs per year. Lots of variables to consider, but that was the broad brush conclusion that stuck in my head.
Doesn't make me feel any better about my steady decline though!

[Cyclingman1]

For a 7 min 2Ker, that is a decline of around 0.5% per year. Depending on one's age, most would take that.

[nick rockliff]

For me:

Age 48 - 2k 6:16.4
Age 54 - 2k 6:24.7

Both from similar training regimes.

[MudSweatAndYears]

[..] if I did 2k at 8:08 five years ago at age 57, is there a ball park figure for what I would do today? Assuming training level, general health etc, are broadly the same.

A finish time of 8:08 for 2k equates to an average power of 193 W.
According to the P/AR metric ( https://erg-all-rounders.blogspot.com/2 ... field.html ) this power drops in sync with the age reserve (120 years minus your actual age). At age 57 your age reserve was 63 years. Your age reserve now (age 62) is 58 years. So assuming the same relative health your expected 2k power now would be (58/63)*193W = 177 W. That equates to a 2k time of 8:21.

[Rowan McSheen]

Thank you! Am I tempted to have a go and see if it's accurate? Let me think on that ...