2000m Expectations From 20min Results

[[old] happywookie]

Coaches, my high school girls just pulled some great 20-minute test scores yesterday. Wondering if I can chart an expected 2000m result from these splits. I'm expecting approx an 8-second improvement on their splits, but wondering if you know of a more accurate expectation. Thx.

[[old] CAROLE MAC]

Happy what did they pull for their 20mins tests... Carole being nosey.... <br /><br />My Pb in Dec for 2k was 7.39 and my best 5k is 20 mins 14 but I think I may have gone on the20 min mark in Dec if I hadn't broken my leg . A lot of people seem to think that double the distance add 5.... which is about right for me ....

[[old] PaulS]

HW,<br /><br />It will depend a bit on the balance of their fitness (Power/Endurance), but since Carole has cited "Paul's Law", let's see how it might relate to your estimate of 8 seconds off the 20 minute Pace.<br /><br />Paul's Law would say that half the distance/time would mean you could take 5 seconds off the pace, so a 10 minute test could be started with that target pace in mind (20 minute pace - 5). Since in this case the number just work out that going for a 5 minute test would mean an additional 5 seconds off the target pace, and you only want to take off 3 (total of 8), which would place the time alloted for the prospected 2k to be in the 7 minute range (not unreasonable for a fast girl).<br /><br />So without further specific information, your 8 second margin seems good.<br /><br />If you went to a 6k test instead of the 20 minute, it relates directly to a 7.5 sec change in pace, or the more often cited 6-9 second range.

[[old] happywookie]

Thanks Paul and Carole. Sounds like we're roughly in range. We've got 47 athletes pulling a 2k this Sunday so I'll have enough data to give future high-school expectations based on our standard 20-minute test.<br /><br />Carole, our girls age from 14-17 yrs old and their scores range from a low of 3909 (2:33 split) for our 85-lb coxie to 4801 (2:05 split) for our top rower. Keep in mind that this time of year is the slowest for us Canadian rowers. Your scores sound excellent. Keep on erging.<br /><br />happywookie

[[old] J.D.]

Try subtracting 5-6% from their 20' split. It's very hard to estimate target rates for young athletes with little erging experience because they usually fly and die or hold back too much and don't perform to their true potential until they have a lot of experience. Schedule another 2K test after this one (you don't have to tell them that yet ) and emphasize to them on this test that they should guard against going too hard too long at the beginning. Then when you retest them, tell them to strictly even split the first 1500m (same as their average split on the first test) and then blast the last 500m with anything they have left. Virtually guaranteed you will see significant improvement.<br /><br />Good luck!

[[old] happywookie]

Thanks J.D. I just plugged -6% into my spreadsheet and came out with slightly more accurate numbers. They pulled a 500m/1000m/1000m/500m workout yesterday using the -8 second target and came out pretty much bang-on with your -6% expectation. We'll see how Sunday's 2k pans out. I agree with the fly and die problem. Hope they pull a good strategic race.<br /><br />