I still think there is something flawed with this formula and reasoning.
If you think about what highly trained/not highly trained implies in terms of performance ceilings, Hagerman's formula makes sense. Take a hypothetical 100 kg male with a 6:30 2k. Plug in "highly trained" and the C2 calculator suggests rower A's VO2max is 59.5 ml/kg/min. Plug in "not highly trained," everything else the same, and the calculator comes up with 48.5. To my mind, what this implies is that if rower B really is "not highly trained" and is still factually capable of a 6:30 with a comparatively low VO2max, he's probably able to improve his performance dramatically by training. If he becomes "highly trained." he will wind up with a significantly higher measured VO2max than that 48.5 and almost certainly will be a lot faster than 6:30. Why is this surprising or counterintuitive?
Take 2 individuals with the same VO2 Max one "highly trained on the erg" and the other "untrained". Which one would you bet on? One would think that the trained athlete is able to fully tap in his potential and have a much better time that the untrained athlete. Isn't it why training is for?
To take back your values, 100kgs vo2 max 59 (very good but not out of this world value for a 100k athlete) and let's find what the calculator gives us
trained athlete => 6'32
untrained athlete => 5'20
(the current world record is at 5:36.6 for the concept2 website it is held by an olympic champion rower -Rob Waddel-, I'd like to see it beaten by an untrained athlete... I'll be even more eager to see what that athlete is capable of once trained!).
As pointed out in the reply from Concept2 the VO2 max cannot increase infinitely, at the end it is bound to how much blood you can pump through your muscles. Training certainly helps you to increase your VO2 Max to its "potential" but also makes you more efficient at transmitting the energy you consume to the erg.
Certainly as a coach, if an untrained and trained athlete have the same 2k time, I will see more "potential" for improvement in the untrained athlete. Is that to say that athlete has a lower VO2 max but other physiological advantage? Not really, I would say that on the contrary the untrained athlete has been able to "waste" more energy for the same results (thus probably has a higher (not lower) VO2 Max than the trained athlete). The purpose of training is to increase the VO2 Max AND those other factors (lactate tolerance, pacing, power, efficiency, etc...). The explanation provided by Concept2 is not satisfying.
The example chosen clearly shows that the formula must be flawed somewhere,
T.