Head of the Charles predictions

[sharp_rower]

Who will win?

All entries are listed here, including bow number assignments: https://www.regattacentral.com/regatta/ ... 6&org_id=0.

In the Men's Championship Eights, Washington, Harvard and Cal are 1, 2 and 3, following last year's finishing order. Before last year's 4th place finisher Princeton, 5 international crews have been inserted by the organizers: two crews from France, two crews from the Netherlands, and one from Australia. The French and Dutch crews include 6 rowers who were in the A final at the most recent World Championships in the M8+. USRowing's bow number is 26 out of 32, owing to a dreadful last place finish in 2012 (due to 3 minutes in penalties). Let's hope USRowing can do better than that this year...

In the Women's Championship Eights, USRowing leads the way and will probably win. Team Canada (London Training Center) also has an entry.

Here's to a splendid weekend of rowing!!!

[ArmandoChavezUNC]

I think UW will take gold in the champ 8.

For the 1x, I can't imagine Kjetil Borch not repeating. He won last year and it's not his home course. He just won a gold at the world championships in the double so he is in great shape. Second and third I think a battle between Drysdale and Graves

[sharp_rower]

There is an interesting assortment of international crews in the Men's Champ Eights, who have been seeded behind last year's top three finishers (UW, Harvard, Cal) but ahead of last year's fourth finisher Princeton.

France has two crews, with Pôle France Aviron Nancy leading the internationals as the fourth seed with four rowers plus coxswain from the crew that placed 6th at the 2013 World Championships in the M8+, and the remaining rowers having gotten Silver and Bronze in the M2- and M2+. The other French crew has four rowers from the M8+.

OTC Amsterdam has two gold medalists from the M4- and a fifth place finisher in the M8+.

USRowing is looking good on paper with five rowers plus coxswain from the Bronze crew in the M8+, two Bronze rowers from the M4- and a Yale grad, Charlie Cole, who won Bronze at the 2012 Olympics in the M4-. Unfortunately, with bow 26 they will need to pass a lot of boats and probably have a longer course than their rivals.

My money is still on a college crew though (Washington or Harvard), because they want it more, and have more Head experience than the internationals. And Harvard just showed their muscle at the Head of the Oklahoma, ahead of two US Training Center crews in the 500 meter night sprint. I say Harvard takes it.

[mikvan52]

For the 1x, I can't imagine Kjetil Borch not repeating. He won last year and it's not his home course. He just won a gold at the world championships in the double so he is in great shape. Second and third I think a battle between Drysdale and Graves

I don't count myself as knowledgable enough to call the M1x..
But let's look at the list again:
https://www.regattacentral.com:443/rega ... vent_id=58

I have the vantage point of having watched J. Graves race multiple times this year... Remember too that he and "B. Dann" were 10th in 2x at World's...
Also; Whelpley edged Graves at the quirky Hosmer Henley last week... and Graves was 1st at Green Mountain...

Is Drysdale pointing (peaking) for the Charles... does he "need" to?.... no "point" = no medal

(2 time winner Sevigny is now 40.... (!) )

My call: Borch .. but Whelpley will edge Graves.... Drysdale probably is not worried about medalling....

Who's this Nereus boy? = Beware the Dutch

"Jozef Klaassen
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jozef Klaassen (born March 5, 1983 in Thames, New Zealand) is a rower from the Netherlands.[1]
Klaassen qualified for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing with the Dutch eights forming a team with Olaf van Andel, Rogier Blink, Meindert Klem, David Kuiper, Diederik Simon, Olivier Siegelaar, Mitchel Steenman and cox Peter Wiersum. Due to an injury Siegelaar was replaced by Reinder Lubbers during the tournament.[1]
Klaassen is 6 ft 6 in (1.98 m) tall. An investment banker, he was a student of Boston University in Finance and Economic, from which he took a sabbatical for a year to train and compete in the Olympics."

[ArmandoChavezUNC]

You may be right. To be fair Graves and Dann didn't row the 2x for that long.. it was only after giving up the 1x to Whelpley that Graves moved to the 2x. Also, he routinely beats Dann in the 1x, so I think it's safe to say he's the faster of the pair.

I don't put much stock in the results of the Hosmer Henley.. it's not a typical race. Though, from what I've read on Graves' training blog, he did take some time off and is "taking it easy" for a while. We'll see. I still think he'll be at the front of the pack.

As for Drysdale - he is familiar with the course; he may not be in tip-top shape, but he's definitely in much better shape than earlier this year. Even the C finalists at worlds have some ridiculous speed in the 1x. I agree that he is not peaking for the Charles, probably just there to have a good time. But his speed having a good time is faster than most people's speed full out.

Either way it'll be a great weekend of racing.

[sharp_rower]

The Olympics and World Championships are basically a straight line, right? So do those elite international crews know how to pass and turn? I'm not completely familiar with turning in rowing. I know the coxswain has a rudder, but sharp turns require one side rowing harder than the other, right? I imagine it takes quite a bit of practice to get the best angles just right.

And also obviously the Olympics and World Championships are only 2,000 meters. Is the 3-mile course an issue for rowers whose training is geared towards 2,000 meters?

[ArmandoChavezUNC]

sharp_rower

It is true, a 2k race and a 5k race are different physiologically. However, they are not different by much. I don't know the exact numbers but a 2k is about 80% or more aerobic, a 5k probably closer to 90-95%. So if the fastest 2k rower faced off against a 5k specialist, the 5k rower would probably win. But the top rowers aren't gearing their training for a 5k. So all of them are on equal footing.

Also, most of the rowers will be on a part of their training cycle that is predominantly aerobic, with little interval training. So they will be primed for a 5k anyway.

As for the steering - lots of these rowers have rowed 5k's before, including the Charles. That's why I predict guys like Kjetil Borch and Dyrsdale to do well - they have done very well at the Charles before, so they know the course.

[TheRocketeer]

Does anyone know why the top crews tend to settle at about 32 strokes per minute? I realize that upping the rate takes the power up, but is there a reason they stop at 32? It seems an odd coincidence that they would all stop in that range. Is there some physiological limit?

[ArmandoChavezUNC]

Not that I am aware of. Crews don't tend to settle at 31/33, just because those are odd numbers, I suppose. 30 is too low, 34 is too high for a 5k. 32 is pretty much the best stroke rate.


And pretty good for my 1x picks, I got the winner right, and Drysdale took 3rd with Graves 4th. I didn't expect Nils Jacob Hoff to be so fast!

[sharp_rower]

Does anyone know why the top crews tend to settle at about 32 strokes per minute?

Not sure that's actually the case. USRowing Men's 8 were going at 35 spm (at least for the first two minutes of the course). And one of the French national team crews was seen at around 38 going past the Eliot Bridge enclosure.

[mikvan52]

keep in mind that rate is affected with the loads set with oar length, inboard, placement of foot stretchers and other measurements... Let's not forget the surface area of the blade and weather conditions too.
Believe me, this is a lot to consider....They can vary a good bit between crews.


SO....32 spm base rate for eights at the Charles?.... No, this isn't written in stone... It's part of a range... Many eights will row higher. Few (younger athlete) winning crews will be lower.
Well trained (and coached) crews work this out in advance. They know what rate produces the fastest speed ahead of time.