Specific 2k Pacing (Per 500m)

arakawa · Post by **arakawa** » May 12th, 2009, 9:15 pm

Mike Caviston wrote:Thanks for the fresh perspective. If you (or anyone else) know where to find splits for horse races, please let me know. I’d love to do some analyses. For that matter, if anyone knows where to find splits for any events besides what I’ve presented in this thread, please let me know. FISA and FINA seem to be the only world governing organizations that provide split data for their championships. I’d like to find more data for running, cycling and skating.

While one in a row is not significant, it's interesting to note that the winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby (Mine That Bird) came from dead last at the 0.75 mile mark (the race is 1.25 miles, covered in about two minutes), 30 lengths back at one point, to win by nearly seven lengths.

Poking around on Wikipedia revealed that, when Secretariat won the Kentucky Derby in 1973, he ran each quarter mile faster than the previous one - negative splitting his way to a record that still stands today.

Nosmo · Post by **Nosmo** » May 13th, 2009, 4:46 pm

arakawa wrote: While one in a row is not significant, it's interesting to note that the winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby (Mine That Bird) came from dead last at the 0.75 mile mark (the race is 1.25 miles, covered in about two minutes), 30 lengths back at one point, to win by nearly seven lengths.

I was thinking of MC when I watched the Derby. That was a really impressive race. He was lucky he managed to run the rail and do the shortest distance and manage to get by 19 other horses without getting boxed in.

PaulG · Post by **PaulG** » May 13th, 2009, 8:55 pm

I don't doubt that negative splits are a good idea on the erg and OTW but I'm not sure that comparisons to track and field or horse racing are valid. There are too many tactics involved in those sports that tend to make racers start slow,not to mention getting boxed in with the pack at the start. None of those issues exist on the erg or OTW.

Nosmo · Post by **Nosmo** » May 18th, 2009, 3:59 pm

PaulG wrote:I don't doubt that negative splits are a good idea on the erg and OTW but I'm not sure that comparisons to track and field or horse racing are valid. There are too many tactics involved in those sports that tend to make racers start slow,not to mention getting boxed in with the pack at the start. None of those issues exist on the erg or OTW.

Saturday's Preakness provided a good illustration of your point. Mine That Bird once again started dead last. He didn't have as clear a path to get by everyone and had to go wide on the last turn. He was closing fast but Rachael Alexandra held on for the win by what looked like maybe 1/3 of a length after running the whole race from the front. Rachael Alexandra did pull away from almost everyone, but if Mine That Bird had as clear a shot as in the Derby he probably would have won.

I don't have the splits but it didn't look like Mine that Bird had close to even splits. His sprint was really strong, so I doubt that he ran the optimum pace. By waiting at the back and having a massive sprint means that the the other horses are more strung out and he will have an easier time getting around them then he would earlier in the race.

However, knowing that slightly negative splits is the fastest to cover a given distance is very important information even if it is not always the best strategy. Tactics and psychology clearly play a roll in OTW rowing races (even if they are not as important as in Track or horse racing). It can be a big psychological advantage to be out in front where you can see other boats--but it is also a big advantage to know that being behind doesn't mean one is slower. One very difficult aspect is knowing how fast one is going in a boat. One does not have the feed back like on an erg, and conditions sometimes change during the race.

PaulG · Post by **PaulG** » May 19th, 2009, 11:43 am

In track and field it might be possible to get good split data for the 400 m and maybe the 800 m. The 400 m is run in lanes all the way around so tactics and pack issues are not a problem. I think the 800 m is in lanes for part of the race. Does anyone remember Dave Wottle in 1972 Olympics in the 800 m? Talk about a sprint at the end!

Mike C: Actually obtaining these data may be hard. You migth be able to get it from coaches.

DavidA · Post by **DavidA** » May 19th, 2009, 1:21 pm

PaulG wrote:Does anyone remember Dave Wottle in 1972 Olympics in the 800 m? Talk about a sprint at the end!

I remember it. It was amazing

David

PaulG · Post by **PaulG** » May 19th, 2009, 7:48 pm

This is the best example I know of successful use of negative splits.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LHid-nC45k

PaulG · Post by **PaulG** » May 19th, 2009, 10:20 pm

PaulG wrote:This is the best example I know of successful use of negative splits.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LHid-nC45k

I did a little research and it seems like Wottle actually ran almost even splits! Everyone else slowed down. Maybe this is a better example of "fly and die" by the rest of the field.