Reliable way of predicting pace over different distances?

[Pendolino]

Hi!

Hopefully this isn't a 'can of worms' type question, and I'm sure it has many different answers, however...

Has anybody ever created anything close to a reliable predictor of what distances/paces you should be able to achieve based on interval training results etc?

As a very rough example, say I can maintain a pace of 2:00.0 / 500 metres for 5,000 metres, is there a calculation that will predict what pace I'd be able to maintain over, for example, 50,000 metres? Something like 2:00.0 / 500 metres - 5,000 metres in = 3:00.0 / 500 metres - 50,000 metres out?

I hope I've made sense, and I'm already aware that there are innumerable variables, including individual's body type/anatomy etc that will skew this, but I'm curious if there's any rough correlation whatsoever?

I'm asking because, whilst I'm still new to rowing, I've considered doing some of the longer distance challenges, HM, marathons and the like, and would like to know a rough pace to aim for based on my current performance.

My assumption that, for longer distances, the accuracy of such a calculator would increase if the samples provided are of a more substantial distance than just 500 m intervals, but I'm intrigued to know!

Any ideas?

Thanks in advance!

[bassongirl]

I think this is what you are looking for:
http://www.freespiritsrowing.com/forum/ ... -predictor

[Pendolino]

I think this is what you are looking for:
http://www.freespiritsrowing.com/forum/ ... -predictor

Precisely that, thanks! As expected, it's a bit erratic and highly sensitive, but good to generate some ballpark figures

[Elizabeth]

That predictor is my favorite once you have some good efforts at very different distances to feed into it.

The other rough method is double the distance, add 3-5 to the splits. If you can do a 5k at 2:00, then you can theoretically do a 10k at 2:03-2:05, and a HM at 2:06-2:10. If you haven't been doing much endurance work, maybe go in slower and then see if you can tick up the pace as you go.

[dabatey]

Paul's law

https://www.machars.net/

[p_b82]

I've used Pauls law as a rough guide too, different site though: https://rowinggeek.com/pauls-law-calculator/

[jamesg]

reliable predictor of what distances/paces you should be able to achieve

There's plenty as listed above. As good as any is plot your own logdistance against W and draw a straight line thru say 2 and 5k, after 2-3 years training.

But we don't do PBs every day, most not even every year in my case. So how do you decide your rating and Watt output in everday work? What do you train?

I do the Wods with a 5' warm-up and then see how it goes, usually ending with a "sprint". My June averages were rate 21.7, 130W, work 6W/kg, 9.9m/stroke over 87km plus warmups, after a month off for an op. July I'll see what gives.

[iain]

That predictor is my favorite once you have some good efforts at very different distances to feed into it.

The other rough method is double the distance, add 3-5 to the splits. If you can do a 5k at 2:00, then you can theoretically do a 10k at 2:03-2:05, and a HM at 2:06-2:10. If you haven't been doing much endurance work, maybe go in slower and then see if you can tick up the pace as you go.

The predictor uses the generalised Paul's Law with the "5S per doubling" replaced with a personalised value. Unfortunately this only really works between 1k & 10k. Many people find 500m is significantly faster (as included in the FS site) 3S/500m for a heavyweight being typical. Sprinting is a whole different technique so sub 500 there is no reliable link to longer distances. Above 10k for someone with the mental toughness the pace drops off more slowly to 30-35K. I have always found that it then increases significantly, but with only a dozen or so harder attempts in that range and big psychological impacts I don't have the data to know how it varies.

[Pendolino]

Thanks for all the posts everyone - the adding 3-5 seconds to the pace for each doubling of distance just worked beautifully for me, working me to exhaustion and feeling unable to do another 100-200 metres the same way as the halved distance at a higher pace did, so thanks!

Hopefully it helps others who might stumble across this thread too