Ranger's training thread

[macroth]

Comparing these graphs is difficult since the scale isn't always the same.
Nevertheless, is it just me or is his stroke rate all over the place from the get-go? It's like he hasn't sat on an erg for 6 months and can't keep a steady rhythm to save his life? Looks like he was trying for a PB (1:37), give or take, but every two strokes he would realize he couldn't do it and raised the rate for a couple of strokes, then had to slow down for two strokes, then back up... With all this talk about holding 30 spm and seeing what happened, he started trying to trade rate for pace after a few dozen meters!

Sharpened or not, whatever he's been doing sure hasn't prepared him to race 2K properly.

[jliddil]

Comparing these graphs is difficult since the scale isn't always the same.
Nevertheless, is it just me or is his stroke rate all over the place from the get-go? It's like he hasn't sat on an erg for 6 months and can't keep a steady rhythm to save his life?

As I posted elsewhere, look at all the other graphs for all competitors. So we are looking at age, sex, weight, pace, place they finished, level of experience. In general they are all fairly flat and linear, even the 100 years old guy. From a purely statistical standpoint (but based on eye-balling the graphs as I don't have raw data) the norm plus or minus 2 standard deviations appears to follow an even race pace strategy. Please anyone else with a math/science stats background feel free to point out the flaws in my reasoning/analysis.

[macroth]

Comparing these graphs is difficult since the scale isn't always the same.
Nevertheless, is it just me or is his stroke rate all over the place from the get-go? It's like he hasn't sat on an erg for 6 months and can't keep a steady rhythm to save his life?

From a purely statistical standpoint (but based on eye-balling the graphs as I don't have raw data) the norm plus or minus 2 standard deviations appears to follow an even race pace strategy.

Leaving aside his breaks and general collapse, his pace creeps up steadily but isn't completely erratic at first . However, his stroke rate keeps spiking up and down from 27 to 34 spm. That's what I find amazing.

[hjs]

Comparing these graphs is difficult since the scale isn't always the same.
Nevertheless, is it just me or is his stroke rate all over the place from the get-go? It's like he hasn't sat on an erg for 6 months and can't keep a steady rhythm to save his life?

As I posted elsewhere, look at all the other graphs for all competitors. So we are looking at age, sex, weight, pace, place they finished, level of experience. In general they are all fairly flat and linear, even the 100 years old guy. From a purely statistical standpoint (but based on eye-balling the graphs as I don't have raw data) the norm plus or minus 2 standard deviations appears to follow an even race pace strategy. Please anyone else with a math/science stats background feel free to point out the flaws in my reasoning/analysis.

Don't make it so difficult, you will find any graph that looks worse than one. He did not manage to stroke 10 strokes more or less alike.

[auerli]

Leaving aside his breaks and general collapse, his pace creeps up steadily but isn't completely erratic at first . However, his stroke rate keeps spiking up and down from 27 to 34 spm. That's what I find amazing.

Probably the wiggly line just reflects the difference between stroke side and bow side pulls of ranger´s "sweep stroke".
I am sure he will sort this out quickly - within the next 2 Olympic cycles or so...

[jliddil]

Comparing these graphs is difficult since the scale isn't always the same.
Nevertheless, is it just me or is his stroke rate all over the place from the get-go? It's like he hasn't sat on an erg for 6 months and can't keep a steady rhythm to save his life?

As I posted elsewhere, look at all the other graphs for all competitors. So we are looking at age, sex, weight, pace, place they finished, level of experience. In general they are all fairly flat and linear, even the 100 years old guy. From a purely statistical standpoint (but based on eye-balling the graphs as I don't have raw data) the norm plus or minus 2 standard deviations appears to follow an even race pace strategy. Please anyone else with a math/science stats background feel free to point out the flaws in my reasoning/analysis.

Don't make it so difficult, you will find any graph that looks worse than one. He did not manage to stroke 10 strokes more or less alike.

I'm a scientist so I make everything complicated. I'm just trying to see what strategy works for most people most of the time. And are there strategies that do not fit the norm but are successful. In the case of BIRC 2010 it appears that there is not anyone else following this strategy whether they are in the top 3 or not and looking at all the other variables. So does a non-conventional strategy of uneven pacing and strokes work? It appears it can but again from eye-balling the data in appears to not be the strategy used by the majority of successful ergers in the BIRC 2010 and certainly not those who won their race but it can place one in the top three. The data are not good or bad they just are.

[hjs]

Don't make it so difficult, you will find any graph that looks worse than one. He did not manage to stroke 10 strokes more or less alike.

I'm a scientist so I make everything complicated. I'm just trying to see what strategy works for most people most of the time. And are there strategies that do not fit the norm but are successful. In the case of BIRC 2010 it appears that there is not anyone else following this strategy whether they are in the top 3 or not and looking at all the other variables. So does a non-conventional strategy of uneven pacing and strokes work? It appears it can but again from eye-balling the data in appears to not be the strategy used by the majority of successful ergers in the BIRC 2010 and certainly not those who won their race but it can place one in the top three. The data are not good or bad they just are.[/quote]


No Need, the laws of fysics are allready known , a more or less evenly applied force will always be the most effective/efficient, that does not mean that you can't alter your rate in your race, try driving you car and get your feet off the gas every 10 seconds, and messure how much gas you need driving this way, compared to evenly giving gas.

[JimR]

I'm a scientist so I make everything complicated. I'm just trying to see what strategy works for most people most of the time. And are there strategies that do not fit the norm but are successful.

Searching the forum for Mike Caviston's posting on the best race race strategy will lead you to some very interesting information on this topic. Mike has done a lot of research on the topic.

JimR

[JimR]

The stroke/pace data is graphed against polling, not by distance or time or stroke number. The low pace was at polls 11 & 12: 1:35 pace r33 (12.4 spi). Poll numbers 159-160 are 1:56 pace r14 (16.0 spi) and presumably represent the first large troughs reflected in the pace and also rate graphs. Poll numbers 206-07 are 1:54 pace r28 (8.4 spi) and apparently the second large trough in the pace graph. Poll numbers 249-51 are 2:18 pace r21 (6.3 spi). The next break looks to have been two strokes: poll numbers 270-72 are 2:30 pace r20 (5.2 spi) and 273-74 are 2:34 pace r23 (4.2 spi). So too poll numbers 302-04: 2:15 pace r21 (6.8 spi) and 305-06 2:19 pace r25 (5.2 spi). There's a similar two-stroke break at poll numbers 335-39, pace falling off to 2:07.

The wheels really come off at poll numbers 350-39: 350-52 are 1:58 r28, 353-54 a whopping 2:35 r20, 355-57 2:34 r24 (3.9 spi), and 358-59 1:54 r28.

Poll numbers 379-83 are all roughly 2:07-09 pace r24-26; poll numbers 400-01 are a stroke at 2:00 r27; 411-12 are a stroke at 1:55 r26; 436-37 are 1:57 r29 (7.5 spi).

Six major rate breaks; five major pace breaks.

In the runup to BIRC ranger claimed he was going to do the same 2K time as you and his training confirmed it. I'm curious ... without dragging all the ranger baggage in to this ... do you think you would have put up a better 2K time if you had not had to travel and such?

Or asking the same question differently ... how much did going to BIRC "cost you" in the 2K as opposed to doing the 2K under optitum conditions on Sunday morning? I don't want to assume you could have done better even though my question implies that assumption.

JimR

[macroth]

I'm a scientist so I make everything complicated. I'm just trying to see what strategy works for most people most of the time. And are there strategies that do not fit the norm but are successful. In the case of BIRC 2010 it appears that there is not anyone else following this strategy whether they are in the top 3 or not and looking at all the other variables. So does a non-conventional strategy of uneven pacing and strokes work? It appears it can but again from eye-balling the data in appears to not be the strategy used by the majority of successful ergers in the BIRC 2010 and certainly not those who won their race but it can place one in the top three. The data are not good or bad they just are.

I assume that when you say strategy you're speaking as a biologist, like animal feeding strategies, ie a mainly instinctive behaviour to which/from which a model or pattern is applied/derived after the fact for the purpose of analysis. That's what ranger's BIRC race was. Most other ergers had a plan and tried to stick to it, and you could indeed call these "strategies". Ranger's pace/rate profile, on the other hand, is him reacting on the spot to the erg's unwillingness to carry him to a 6:28 2K. He certainly didn't plan to rate all over the place and take 5 or 6 breaks.

As far as successful or unsuccessful, you have to keep in mind that a truly successful race for ranger (given his performances in the recent past) would have been 6:50 or less, irrespective of his place on the podium. I'm sure Graham Benton could have taken a few breaks and still won his race, but that doesn't mean this "strategy" could be considered equally as succesful as the one he actually followed.

[jliddil]

I'm a scientist so I make everything complicated. I'm just trying to see what strategy works for most people most of the time. And are there strategies that do not fit the norm but are successful. In the case of BIRC 2010 it appears that there is not anyone else following this strategy whether they are in the top 3 or not and looking at all the other variables. So does a non-conventional strategy of uneven pacing and strokes work? It appears it can but again from eye-balling the data in appears to not be the strategy used by the majority of successful ergers in the BIRC 2010 and certainly not those who won their race but it can place one in the top three. The data are not good or bad they just are.

I assume that when you say strategy you're speaking as a biologist, like animal feeding strategies, ie a mainly instinctive behaviour to which/from which a model or pattern is applied/derived after the fact for the purpose of analysis. That's what ranger's BIRC race was. Most other ergers had a plan and tried to stick to it, and you could indeed call these "strategies". Ranger's pace/rate profile, on the other hand, is him reacting on the spot to the erg's unwillingness to carry him to a 6:28 2K. He certainly didn't plan to rate all over the place and take 5 or 6 breaks.

To play devil's advocate here. We do not "know" a priori what his plan or race "strategy" was since it appears what he writes here may or may not reflect what he is really doing or plans to do. Thus as an outside observer only looking at data I draw the conclusion that this was what he planned to do. We do not know for a fact that this was his reaction to the erg. You really have not data to support this conclusion. Indirect evidence (again heresay as posted here) "suggests" that he may have had other things in mind. But they only suggest this. What we have from N=1, BIRC 2010 is a single set of data. I want to isolate this from all previous results as to not be biased.

So to use a certain word, IF

IF a person trains as has been described here (here say)
IF a person works to get their weight down to a level so they can erg in a given category, following some method (here say)
IF a person ergs following a plan of uneven pacing/stroke rate as demonstrated by a real race. We have only race data thus we have can only draw the conclusion this was the test subjects "plan". We do not have access to actual advice or planning given to the test subject by his coach. It would seem if one were to go the expense to fly to the UK to race then one would have a defined plan and be willing to stick to it. But this could well be a faulty assumption.

THEN the person can place. It may be the strategy/plan only needs some refinement to allow said test subject to move from 3rd to 1st.

What that the persons "perceived" potential is, here and now today, not X years ago, has no relevance as we do not know the actual current physiologic parameters of the said test subject.

[macroth]

I'm a scientist so I make everything complicated. I'm just trying to see what strategy works for most people most of the time. And are there strategies that do not fit the norm but are successful. In the case of BIRC 2010 it appears that there is not anyone else following this strategy whether they are in the top 3 or not and looking at all the other variables. So does a non-conventional strategy of uneven pacing and strokes work? It appears it can but again from eye-balling the data in appears to not be the strategy used by the majority of successful ergers in the BIRC 2010 and certainly not those who won their race but it can place one in the top three. The data are not good or bad they just are.

I assume that when you say strategy you're speaking as a biologist, like animal feeding strategies, ie a mainly instinctive behaviour to which/from which a model or pattern is applied/derived after the fact for the purpose of analysis. That's what ranger's BIRC race was. Most other ergers had a plan and tried to stick to it, and you could indeed call these "strategies". Ranger's pace/rate profile, on the other hand, is him reacting on the spot to the erg's unwillingness to carry him to a 6:28 2K. He certainly didn't plan to rate all over the place and take 5 or 6 breaks.

To play devil's advocate here. We do not "know" a priori what his plan or race "strategy" was since it appears what he writes here may or may not reflect what he is really doing or plans to do. Thus as an outside observer only looking at data I draw the conclusion that this was what he planned to do. We do not know for a fact that this was his reaction to the erg. You really have not data to support this conclusion. Indirect evidence (again heresay as posted here) "suggests" that he may have had other things in mind. But they only suggest this. What we have from N=1, BIRC 2010 is a single set of data. I want to isolate this from all previous results as to not be biased.

So to use a certain word, IF

IF a person trains as has been described here (here say)
IF a person works to get their weight down to a level so they can erg in a given category, following some method (here say)
IF a person ergs following a plan of uneven pacing/stroke rate as demonstrated by a real race. We have only race data thus we have can only draw the conclusion this was the test subjects "plan". We do not have access to actual advice or planning given to the test subject by his coach. It would seem if one were to go the expense to fly to the UK to race then one would have a defined plan and be willing to stick to it. But this could well be a faulty assumption.

THEN the person can place. It may be the strategy/plan only needs some refinement to allow said test subject to move from 3rd to 1st.

What that the persons "perceived" potential is, here and now today, not X years ago, has no relevance as we do not know the actual current physiologic parameters of the said test subject.

OK. But given all these assumptions and the absence of some very relevant information, we can't draw any useful conclusions from this test.

[NavigationHazard]

...do you think you would have put up a better 2K time if you had not had to travel and such?

Or asking the same question differently ... how much did going to BIRC "cost you" in the 2K as opposed to doing the 2K under optitum [sic] conditions on Sunday morning? I don't want to assume you could have done better even though my question implies that assumption.

There's no way to know for sure, as it's impossible to have a control group when the number of subjects is one. My strong feeling is that some combination of travel + conditions in the arena took maybe 4-5 seconds off most people's times. Anecdotally I'd have bet the house that Benton was on for 6:45, for example, and he was the only sub-6 time of the day at 5:50. Michelle Marullo in the 50-54 MHW was about 5 seconds slower than he was in Boston last year and of what I gather his training indicated. Etc. etc. etc.

My event was complicated by not one, not two,but three false starts: two by the 50-54 fatties and one by someone in my own race. The upshot was that we sat on our ergs waiting to start for what felt like ten minutes. That's pretty much guaranteed to upset the physiological timing of anyone's normal warmup routine, let alone the mental aspects of a start. More generally, according to my body clock I got up at midnight to arrive at the venue (car from London) and it was going on 5 am when the race went off. That sort of time shift is wrenching no matter what you do. It definitely affected me.

I've probably said it before on here but I'll repeat myself. For my money one of the greatest erg performances ever involved NZ international George Bridgewater at the 2005 Crash-Bs. IIRC he spent something like 29 straight hours travelling to Boston from Way Down Undah, cleared customs at Logan Airport in Boston the morning of the competition, went straight to the arena and finished second to Pavel Shurmei with a 5:47.6.

[Citroen]

(but based on eye-balling the graphs as I don't have raw data)

Raw data is here:

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[TomR]

To play devil's advocate here. We do not "know" a priori what his plan or race "strategy" was since it appears what he writes here may or may not reflect what he is really doing or plans to do. Thus as an outside observer only looking at data I draw the conclusion that this was what he planned to do. We do not know for a fact that this was his reaction to the erg. . . .

blah blah blah

Your science is unequal to the task at hand. The guy is a certified fruit loop. Conjecture, hypothesis, data are as useful as a premature ejaculation in a whorehouse.

He cannot do what he has alleged he can do, and he won't do what he could in the best of circumstances because he's too addled to proceed rationally.