ranger wrote:...I have been racing boats on the water all my life...I know all about wind, rain, cold, current, obstacles...these things slow you down...It takes experience to negotiate such things...Who would think otherwise?
Ranger,
Foolish me. Clearly I have strayed into the pointless world of greased pig-wrestling, but will reply and then return to other more interesting pursuits, such as actually rowing or playing with my kids.
As below, it appears
you would think otherwise, most notably in the way one defines relevant experience.
ranger wrote:..I am not presuming anything about how fast I can be OTW, but isn't it a little more straightforward than you are making out? Don't you just gaze at your speed coach from day to day and note how fast you are going? In the end, isn't that what wins races? "Tricks up their sleeves"?...Not sure what you mean...If I can rate 30 spm in head races, what then?..but perhaps you can explain.
A relevant passage from my response -
pmacaula wrote:...Cohen and Karonen appear to be better at head races than Drysdale. Some of it may be because they were taking the HOCR more seriously than Drysdale, but a material component is because Cohen and Karonen are better at maximizing their speed over a winding course full of obstacles, even though Drysdale is clearly MUCH faster than either of them in a straight line.
On Experience racing boats. Like you, I have raced all kinds of boats (sailing dinghies, keelboats, canoes, kayaks, ...) my whole life, including 7 years of racing in sweep-oared shells on both sprint and head courses of all types. While this is all helpful in a general sense, none of it really helps differentiate when racing a 1x in a competitive field on a crowded, twisty course.
What does count is actual 1x racing experience over a similar distance in a range of conditions. Even better if it is on the same course.
Given the discussion on experience is academic until you have actually done a head race, let's return to your basic premise.
You will win the 60+ 1x at HOCR your first time out.
You arrive at this conclusion by taking some combination of experience racing various types of boat plus good conditioning, an excellent 2K PB and apparently uncoached solo training in the 1x.
While your 2k erg season best is excellent, your erg racing record suggests an inability to judge pacing on a consistent basis.
If you are unable to handle the very small number of external variables involved in performing consistently at erg races, it strains credibility that you would handle the much larger number involved in a head race.
Unlike erg racing, equating a win at a small OTW regatta to a win at HOCR by comparing pace/500m would be almost universally viewed as delusional. You need to show up & win on the day. No do-overs. It is also important to note that a poor time at HOCR (>10% slower than the winner, or equivalent to handling down in an erg race due) will significantly reduce your chance of securing a spot the following year.
In short, it would be really helpful for you to get a number of 5K head races under your belt in order to improve your race 'smarts'.
A supplementary point. Equating speed on your home course to speed at the HOCR is problematic. If I used my best training times over 5K on my home course (which is even twistier and much narrower than the HOCR course), I could have concluded that I would be in contention to win and a shoo-in for a guaranteed entry for 2010 (within 5% of the winner), especially since another sculler (who I was getting pretty close to in terms of speed by October '09) at our club came 7th the previous year & was seeded 1st in our division (Club 1x) in '09.
We both ended up between 5% and 10% behind the winner. A big disappointment for the other sculler from my club, but a solid result for me.
Per my previous post, do hope you get out to some races this coming year & I strongly suggest that you do so in the 1x in addition to the 8+. They are very different experiences.
Cheers. Patrick.