Estimating 2km time from other pieces - any anecdotes ?

[ampire]

I've used the Free Spirits calculator a few times to estimate my 2K based on my 500M, 5KM, and 10KM and its been surprisingly pretty accurate for determining a good achievable target split.

[KeithT]

While I hate it - the 4x1K with 5'R is almost spot on to 2K+1 for me and I suffer like doing a 2K. I seem to be able to do 500m and 250m intervals faster than prescribed.

The free Spirit calculator works OK for me depending on what two score I use - when I use a short one (500m) and a much longer one (60 min. ) I get some odd predictions.

[uk gearmuncher]

While I hate it - the 4x1K with 5'R is almost spot on to 2K+1 for me and I suffer like doing a 2K. I seem to be able to do 500m and 250m intervals faster than prescribed.

Just so as I'm clear, what do you mean by 2k+1 ?

(the imbalance of someone's 500m and 250m makes sense as the proportion of work driven by the aerobic system is considerably less at those short distances - and will be until an interval length goes out past at least 3 minutes long. If you're the kind of athlete who has a greater genetic predisposition to those rather than longer steady state work, use of those will skew your results or profile quite badly).

[Citroen]

Just so as I'm clear, what do you mean by 2k+1 ?

If your 2K pace is 1:45/500m then your 2K+1 pace is 1:46/500m.

[nates]

Sort of tangentially related: This website purports to calculate a VO2 max as a proportion of heart rate.
http://www.shapesense.com/fitness-exerc ... lator.aspx

Most of my 2k data is at the all day slog pace, which is about 77% of VO2 max heart rate. If I scale that up my 150 bpm 9:52 time it suggests a 9:23 max effort 2k. Modest enough to be sort of believable given my best pace for 45s intervals is 1:50. (And modest enough that I don't want to cut a non-interval day short because I pushed too hard.)

[ampire]

Sort of tangentially related: This website purports to calculate a VO2 max as a proportion of heart rate.
http://www.shapesense.com/fitness-exerc ... lator.aspx

Most of my 2k data is at the all day slog pace, which is about 77% of VO2 max heart rate. If I scale that up my 150 bpm 9:52 time it suggests a 9:23 max effort 2k. Modest enough to be sort of believable given my best pace for 45s intervals is 1:50. (And modest enough that I don't want to cut a non-interval day short because I pushed too hard.)

There is also this vo2 max calculator https://www.concept2.com/indoor-rowers/ ... calculator

[nates]

Yes I used that in my calculations, but it assumes you're going at max VO2. The link I pasted it the only one I have seen which attempts to incorporate your ready rate into your VO2 max calculations. Which is ironic.

[Amazing Amazon]

I've used the Free Spirits calculator a few times to estimate my 2K based on my 500M, 5KM, and 10KM and its been surprisingly pretty accurate for determining a good achievable target split.

I use the calculator quite a lot to give me target paces for nearly all the distances/times. Obviously I reset whenever I improve on the prediction from of my previous best 2 results.

I think it's based on pace vs. log distance being linear. However i don't think it wise to include a 500m as even the calculator suggests a 2 second adjustment to pace for this distance and for me I find I go faster still. Still it's probably most accurate when interpolating, hence using 1k and 5k times.

Likewise, for me at least, it's far too optimistic for the FM, I find this unsurprising as apart from anything when I get to the FM I start to include breaks.

Unfortunately this year all my 'best' distances are longer and using the calculator pretty consistent from 5k to HM, Seems the slope of the line has shifted and it's my 1k and 2k that it's predicting that I'm underachieving. Nevertheless hitting it's predicted sub 8 minute for the 2k would be great if I could actually do it (my current season 2k best is a miserable 8:08.2)

[Dangerscouse]

Nevertheless hitting it's predicted sub 8 minute for the 2k would be great if I could actually do it (my current season 2k best is a miserable 8:08.2)

There's nothing 'miserable' about that 2k time, unless you think it was a soft SB? If it was, you've got some low hanging fruit to work towards.

[lancecampeau]

I've used the Free Spirits calculator extensively over the last 2 years and its proven to be a fairly good indicator when used properly. That is to say, if the times you plug in are recent max or near max effort you should get some good predictions (Its particularly accurate if you are using numbers just above and below the target you are trying to predict...)

Here is a recent example...

I did a 10k on Christmas day (40:24) and a 4 MIN a few weeks ago (1175m). Neither of these were a full maximum effort... but they were definitely solid/tiring. So, if you plug these numbers here is what you get...



I point to the 5k as a likely result... At present, a 19:06 would also be somewhat tiring, but not a "drain-the-tank" max effort.



Here is example that shows a bit more of a skewed result when using the pace predictor... Here I am using some recent results... max effort 500m and strong effort HM



These numbers point to a 6:47 time for the 2k and there is no way I could manage that pace at present... even at MAX, max effort.

[ampire]

If I want a sub 7:00 2K, what is a good sustained split for an 8x500M/2r? 1:43/500M?

[Dangerscouse]

If I want a sub 7:00 2K, what is a good sustained split for an 8x500M/2r? 1:43/500M?

Personally I'd try and do 4 x 1k r4/5 as a better indicator. I always find 500m, even with eight reps to not really make you feel like a 2k. There is a tendency to try and go too fast and then really struggle imo.

Having said that if you can do 1:43 for 8x500m you should be good for a sub 7 2k

[ampire]

If I want a sub 7:00 2K, what is a good sustained split for an 8x500M/2r? 1:43/500M?

Personally I'd try and do 4 x 1k r4/5 as a better indicator. I always find 500m, even with eight reps to not really make you feel like a 2k. There is a tendency to try and go too fast and then really struggle imo.

Having said that if you can do 1:43 for 8x500m you should be good for a sub 7 2k

Okay I will try the 4x1K next week and target at ~1:47-1:46/500 pace just to get a feel for it. I am not quite at the 7:00 2K just yet, just trying to plan ahead.

[hjs]

If I want a sub 7:00 2K, what is a good sustained split for an 8x500M/2r? 1:43/500M?

Personally I'd try and do 4 x 1k r4/5 as a better indicator. I always find 500m, even with eight reps to not really make you feel like a 2k. There is a tendency to try and go too fast and then really struggle imo.

Having said that if you can do 1:43 for 8x500m you should be good for a sub 7 2k

No, 143 is certainly not good enough for a clear sub7. A hard 7 flat is likely.

If you are not tired doing 500 reps, you are not really trying, even one 500 can kill you. There is a relative big spread on them though. The anaerobic component is relative large, something which is less helpfull during a 2k.

[ampire]

Thanks for info hjs and Dangerscouse, very helpful.