Really interesting, thanks.iain wrote: ↑May 9th, 2023, 11:27 am
Broadly between 1k and 10k most people find that an all out effort drops off by a similar amount for a doubling of the distance. The amount of the change varies depending on comparative anaerobic strength and aerobic fitness. If you ignore the very unfit then most find the decline in pace for the doubling is 3-7S (call this factor "F"). "Paul's Law" suggests that to optimise 2k pace most people should train to get this factor to around 5S although this is high for most lightweights or older rowers. Nevertheless I assumed the mid-value of 5S.
generalising the formula will say that for an increase in distance from X to PX will decrease the pace (ie increase the time per 500m) by log(P)/log(2)xF. log(1.5)/log(2) x 5 = 2.9S which is approx the difference between the paces.
To apply the formula to my case, let's say I can row 1k all effort at 2:05. Paul's Law would suggest an 8k time of 2:20, which I don't think I could do at the moment, so that would indicate that my aerobic fitness is worse than my anaerobic strength. On the other hand, if I apply an F factor of 6-7 to account that I'm quite tall and heavy, my 8k time would drop to around 2:25, which I probably could achieve. Is that correct?