Predicting PB times based on interval workouts.

[Fuller]

Good day to everyone, a little background:

I'm 68 years old and still looking for personal challenges at least compared to other folks my age. Competition wise I'm mostly an "AquaBiker" which means triathlon without the run. I'm a good biker and a decent swimmer so I've done well locally and almost made it to the podium nationally. But a nagging shoulder injury has kept me from swimming this summer so I'm on the bench for racing for a while. But rowing seems to be OK and I love the simplicity of keeping a pace and I like sports where form is important for success.

I follow a general workout schedule and send all my data to Training Peaks. I do a couple of interval sessions a week on my indoor bike trainer and now I'm adding 3 to 4 rowing sessions to the mix in lieu of swimming. Three years ago, without much specific training I rowed a 7:52 2K and a 20:10 5K, my mission is to surpass those numbers and hopefully break 20 minutes for the 5K and get down to 7:45 for the 2K. The 3 years older component weighs heavily when you get to the mid sixties so it's not going to be easy.

The easiest interval to set up on the PM5 of course is the 500m / 1:00 rest. I typically do a descending set starting at a 2:05 pace and 10-12 intervals later I'm at 1:52. I also read up on the Pete Plan where the interval is 8 x 500m / 3:30r with the pace set at 3 seconds faster than your best 2k time.

So yesterday I was able to do that set at 1:52.7 (8 reps) I actually set out to do them at 1:55 but I felt pretty good after overcooking the first one and just kept at it.

This is all a bit long winded but I'm wondering if there is a prediction to be made here. Does doing the Pete Plan workout at 1:53 mean you should do a 2K piece at 1:56?

Any other comments or suggestions are appreciated, I'm at the stage where I'm still absorbing everything that comes my way.

Thanks!

[MPx]

I also read up on the Pete Plan where the interval is 8 x 500m / 3:30r with the pace set at 3 seconds faster than your best 2k time.

So yesterday I was able to do that set at 1:52.7 (8 reps) I actually set out to do them at 1:55 but I felt pretty good after overcooking the first one and just kept at it.

This is all a bit long winded but I'm wondering if there is a prediction to be made here. Does doing the Pete Plan workout at 1:53 mean you should do a 2K piece at 1:56?

IMO yes with a 1:53 avg on that piece you should be able to cover the 2k @ 1:56. Of course PP is a training plan to get you better at 2k. The pacing suggestions are to make the most of the training. But if its possible to do one way around, it must be possible to do the other or the suggestion would never work.

But we are all different and the "rules" don't suit everyone. I am relatively better the shorter the interval. The result is my pace varies significantly over different length pieces faster than prediction on very short, longer than prediction on long. Others are the opposite with an impressive ability to attack virtually any length piece at more or less the same speed, but less ability to really "sprint" on the shortest pieces.

[Dangerscouse]

I'm not a sprinter, nor too inclined to do the shorter distances, but I find 500s aren't ideal for a 2k prediction as they don't really prepare you for the second half of a 2k.

I agree with Mike that 1:56 should be possible, but I'd add in 4 x 1k 5r at your target pace to really test it. Having said that the PP will also properly prepare you for the challenge. Good luck with it.

[jamesg]

the interval is 8 x 500m / 3:30r with the pace set at 3 seconds faster than your best 2k time.
Does doing the Pete Plan workout at 1:53 mean you should do a 2K piece at 1:56?

So which comes first, chicken or egg? If you already have a 2k test, and have trained endurance and technique, just do the next one a little faster.

Warm up well, start at near your last 2k average and in the last 500 give it all you've got, if needed. Races are not won by fading, and that's where you'll surprise yourself; and any competition. Repeat whenever. If you've trained your endurance and your technique, you'll see the results.

You can monitor technique by watching your Watt/Rating ratio; this is the work in each stroke. Since this has to be high in a race, keep it high in training too, at all ratings.

I used the French protocol for 2k racing, many years ago, and it always got me medals. This sets both the basic pace and also strategy. A single 500m test, with the 2k done at 11% slower average pace, the central 1000 slower still. This puts the accent on endurance, so it if fails we know what to do next. The 500 is short so can be done anytime, if warm. Best do a few, small adjustments can have large effects. Best avoid going flat out just for the sake of it, but keep the rating and the stroke itself under control. You'll need that stroke even more in the 2k.

[Fuller]

Thanks for the input, I appreciate it. I'll start doing some 1k intervals to extend my endurance at race pace, that makes sense to me. Honestly my 1:53 intervals were hard but not obnoxiously so, but thinking about doing a 7:45 2k seems insurmountable right now.

I don't like to do a failed test or even a sub par workout, I think it must be due to my age, my body is younger athletically than most guys my age but I still have the fragile ego of an old man. Perhaps I need a sports psychologist too!

[Fuller]

Ok so I gave it a go this afternoon. I warmed up first but then I went out way too fast! My plan was to hold 1:56 x 4 but my first split was 1:55 and I was just done at the halfway point. So I limped home to finish the piece and did some active recovery on the treadmill for 20 minutes. My second attempt was much better, I started at 1:59 and negative split the rest to finish at 7:53.6. It was definitely an all out effort but that time is my 2nd best at the 2K and it moved me up the rankings quite a bit

I'm sure I can do better - I didn't feel all that strong during the warm up so I knew it was not going to be an easy piece. I think on the right day I can do 7:45 or maybe even better. I also need to experiment with my warm ups. I'm 68 and had a heart attack 5 years ago - those two factors keep me from going all out until I get past that first wave of fatigue. I'm guessing my heart doesn't respond as quickly as it used to but considering what I went through I'm ok with it.

[MPx]

Great result on that second one. You're on your way....keep it going!

[max_ratcliffe]

So you did your 2nd trial 20 minutes after the first? That's very very gutsy indeed.

Brilliant effort. Well done.

[Fuller]

Yeah, patience is not my strong suit. The first attempt didn't go very well so I cut it short and justified it as an "extended warmup" Whatever works, right?

[jamesg]

started at 1:59 and negative split the rest to finish at 7:53.6.

That's well over 200W, so well done. What rating did you use?

In rowing, the work in each stroke is critical, since on one side there's a ceiling to ratings, and on the other a limit to the force we can apply to the handle.

The third item is the length of the stroke; short is not much use, especially on the erg.

[Fuller]

I've made an effort lately in my training to lower my rate a bit so I stayed at about 24-25. I'm 6'-0" and the stroke length averages 1.36m. I"m sure my form was not very good at the end though. Since folks are so helpful here I think I'll take some video and see what the group thinks of it. I have my own opinions of how I can improve but they may not be accurate.

Thanks again.

[KeithT]

Yeah, patience is not my strong suit. The first attempt didn't go very well so I cut it short and justified it as an "extended warmup" Whatever works, right?

The fact you tried twice shows right there that you can go faster without burning up energy on a first attempt. You can call it a warm-up but prob taxed your body a bit more than what you would want to. As far as predictor workouts - there are many but I agree with Stu that the 500m ones aren't quite as accurate - for me 4x1000m 5'R is always about 2k+1 - so if you want to do a 7:45 (1:56 pace) try the 4x1000m and average 1:57.

[Fuller]

That sounds like it's doable and good training regardless. My local YMCA is closed this week for a complete redo of all their cardio equipment so it will have to wait until it's put back together, I told the manager to make sure he didn't get talked into a machine other than a C2. We'll see.

[Tsnor]

That sounds like it's doable and good training regardless. My local YMCA is closed this week for a complete redo of all their cardio equipment so it will have to wait until it's put back together, I told the manager to make sure he didn't get talked into a machine other than a C2. We'll see.

Be interesting to see what a week of rest does for you. It makes some people superman for the first workout or two.

[Fuller]

For weeks I couldn't get the Bluetooth working on the machine I was using but today it magically connected with Erg Data. No point in going for a PB if it doesn't count, right? But I had a good warm up and felt so good at the beginning of my 5k piece I just kept pushing. Got down to 19:59.6 which was my long term goal and knocks off 10 seconds from my previous PB which was three years ago. My 68 year old self is better trained for sure, because honestly getting old really sucks and it's hard just to tread water.

I'll do some low level work for a few days then see how the 2k goes. I'm also .1 seconds from taking the next place on the ranking page (not that I pay much attention to those sorts of things).