Another predict my progress thread!!!

General discussion on Training. How to get better on your erg, how to use your erg to get better at another sport, or anything else about improving your abilities.
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Elamonta
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Another predict my progress thread!!!

Post by Elamonta » November 19th, 2008, 8:47 pm

Hey there,

I recently took up the Pete Plan again (after some knee/elbow problems over the summer) and have seen some pretty recent success. All fall season I was working toward a sub 1:55 avg for a 6k test, and just yesterday I had one of those amazing workouts where I completed an 8k piece at a 1:54.3 avg (the final 6k was at a 1:53ish pace). Obviously I am set for a SB on a legit 6k...but what I was truly wondering...

If last season my 6k best was a 1:55.2 avg and my 2k best was a 1:44.2 avg...and now my 6k looks poised to be a 1:52ish...do you think that will automatically correlate to a lower 2k time...or could it simply be that my endurance times are that much better. I have noticed on my other PP workouts that they are indicative of a 1:43 2k test...

My guess is that I should just stop typing...do a damn 2k, and see what the deal is lol. When I completed the 8k yesterday, the first 5-6k felt effortless, with the last 2k being a little harder (I finished the last 1k with a 1:48avg so I still had some in the tank).

So what do you think...if I keep sticking with the PP how much of a gain would I expect to see in lets say by the first week of January (so 6-7 weeks)?

BTW...21 yrs old...collegiate lightweight male...6'1 160lbs (if that matters for the predictions)...

Thanks for reading...!

Nosmo
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Post by Nosmo » November 19th, 2008, 9:22 pm

If your PP workouts indicate a 1:43 then you probably can do pretty close to a 1:43. So do the test and find out.

One doesn't suddenly drop from a 1:55 to a 1:52 in the space of a few weeks if one has been training all fall. IF you did it indicates you did something much better to get the 1:52. Likely you were better rested (i.e. not over trained) properly warmed up, and you were mentally in good shape because of a lack of pressure or just because it was going well.

6-7 week on the PP should give you a 1-2 second improvement in your 2K time. All else being equal. You should get a pretty good idea from the improvement in your 4x1K workouts.

Good job on the 8K. It really great when something like that happens.
Make sure you negative split your workouts and your test.

Elamonta
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Post by Elamonta » November 19th, 2008, 10:25 pm

My last 4x1k workout was at a 1:44.7 average. For the 4x1k workout, PP says it should be 2k plus 1-3...so is this indicative of a 1:43 2k test...or more of a 1:45.

I'm pretty good at sticking to the erg program lol...but have no idea what predictors lie within (if that makes any sense). I just do the workouts and then do the erg tests my coach makes us do lol.

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Post by Nosmo » November 19th, 2008, 10:58 pm

It will vary from person to person, but if you are doing 5' rest, then you should beat your 1:44.7.
When you do the test, start off at 1:45 for the first 400m, then drop it to 1:44 for then next 400m, then depending on how you feel hold it steady or drop it by 1 sec each 400m. If you are capable of a 1:43 then this is not a bad strategy. If you are only capable of of a 1:45 then going a bit fast in the second 1:44 won't hurt much.

After you do one or two 2K tests you will get a better idea of how your 4x1K compares to your 2K time and be able to judge better in the future.

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Post by Elamonta » November 20th, 2008, 4:18 pm

If I were to do 5-6 erg sessions a week, plus occasional weights, and 6 morning water practices with my team...assuming no injuries, and proper rest on required "erg rest" days...do you think I would be able to drop my 2k from the 6:55 I seem to be on pace for...to say a sub 6:40. In the past endurance was my problem and I feel that hurts my 2k pretty substantially too...for example...I can pull a 500m piece at a 1:29avg (if not faster)...it took me the better part of 2 years to get to the point where I can do a sub 1:55 6k...and now things are looking up...

Thinking positively, I believe I can go sub 6:50 by the first week of February...and hopefully by the end of April...shooting for sub 6:40. Seem reasonable...or am I too optimistic?

Be honest haha...I can take it.

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Post by Nosmo » November 20th, 2008, 7:03 pm

Mike Caviston (of the Wolverine Plan) says he improves his average pace by ~.2 seconds pace on his 4x1000 per week and ~.1 on his 4x2000. These intervals are the best correlation with 2K and 5K paces. (His improvement seems more or less right to me but I have not been consistent enough to know how it holds in the long run.)

So in 8 weeks that comes out to about 1.6 seconds of average pace or about 6.5 seconds. Now you are a lot younger and have less years erging, so I would think it would be possible to improve more then him.

If you are going to improve that much, you need really consistent and intelligent training. PP is a good way to go. Also take a look at WP. It is complicated but worth the effort especially for an OTW rower.

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Post by Elamonta » November 22nd, 2008, 1:20 pm

Completed a 5x1500m workout two days ago...

1. 1:50.7
2. 1:50.7
3. 1:50.6
4. 1:50.6
5. 1:48.7

With 5:00 rest, per Pete Plan.

Today I am going to attempt a sub 7:00 2k test...just to see how it feels...not sure if I will go "all out", but I am interested to see if/how difficult a sub 7 will be at this point of the fall.

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Post by Nosmo » November 22nd, 2008, 6:46 pm

with those intervals You should be sub 7:00.

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Post by Elamonta » November 22nd, 2008, 7:33 pm

Indeed you were correct.

Just did a 2k test on an ill-kept model C our school gym has...and result was rather motivating...

1:44.3
1:44.7
1:44.7
1:42.7

End result: 6:56.4 at 29spm.

Didnt have many strokes out of my control...kept it between 1:44 and 1:45 for entire piece except for start 5 and sprinting last 200m. I am very excited for the upcoming workouts...because I am sure by the start of January I will be sub 6:50 (given that this erg test was not THAT challenging).

Thanks for the advice and motivation to keep going hard.

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Post by Nosmo » November 22nd, 2008, 8:57 pm

Good job! So now you know that going under your 4x1K pace is not too bad.
It may be worth doing another test where you push a bit harder. Your splits were pretty even which is good. If you dropped the 2 seconds in the last split mostly in the last 200m, then you clearly could have picked up the pace earlier and gotten a faster time.

Again good job. Keep us informed how your training is going.

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Post by Elamonta » November 23rd, 2008, 6:27 pm

Did a 60:00 piece today...

15117m (1:59.1) 24spm

I read in another post that being able to do a sub 2:00 avg for a 60:00 piece is generally an indicator of a sub 7 2k piece...it would seem to hold true for me at least.

Tomorrow starts week 6 of the Pete Plan (aka second round of week 3). I am excited.

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Post by Nosmo » November 24th, 2008, 1:57 pm

[quote="Elamonta"]I read in another post that being able to do a sub 2:00 avg for a 60:00 piece is generally an indicator of a sub 7 2k piece...it would seem to hold true for me at least./quote]

I don't really think so. 15K in 1 hour is much easier. 7:00 2K and 60 min 15K implies a Paul's Constant of 5.2--very high. I would think 1:57 or so for 60 minutes would be more typical.

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Post by Elamonta » November 24th, 2008, 3:30 pm

Ahh...I see. Oh well, I don't particularly need the predictor, was just trying to relate other posts to my sap story lol. Thanksgiving break starts on Wednesday for us here...hopefully I can fight off the fat and remain ltwt during the holiday torture lol.

**On a side note, I used to have a CTC "PR chart" at the bottom of my signature, but noticed that I cannot find the link to go back and edit my bests for the signature. Does anyone have the link for that page, or a similar page where I can accomplish the same goal?

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Post by BLN » December 8th, 2008, 4:30 pm

Please help predict my progress by predicting my 2k or 6k time (not sure what this workout correlates to):

8x1000m with 4 minutes rest at an average of 1:42.9 at rate capped 22 SPM

I'm doing a 6k test 2 weeks from now, anyone know what range I might be in? (I'm still in a base building phase of my training, with this being my only real workout of the week, just to keep my power fresh, so I don't have any other workouts that would be indicators of my performance).

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