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[jackarabit]

Sighted in CTC: a pod of Whales! Makes me think of Emmy Baker and the Banana Boat gang. Nice going Chris. Let’s get some more new blood in that boat!

[AnnaRaeGreen]

Sighted in CTC: a pod of Whales! Makes me think of Emmy Baker and the Banana Boat gang. Nice going Chris. Let’s get some more new blood in that boat!

That pod of Whales is now floating Boat IV in the CTC (Chris, Alex and Hazel all in the same boat).

Chris - Thanks to Hazel for taking over the job of "propping up the table" from me - but I see she must of got tired of doing that because she drastically improved her time and now no longer has that job either.

I might have another try at that pyramid towards the end of the month, but want to get in a total of 100 k for the Virtual Fall Team Challenge. (Seems like small change compared to some, but that's my goal for the challenge).

Anna Rae

[Slothful1]

All metres are useful, Anna Rae, so don't underplay a 100k contribution!

The useful thing about these challenges is that they help fight the demotivations along the way. In non-challenge months I definitely can talk myself out of a training session with a range of excuses, but if I feel like I'm letting the team down in some way it normally helps to get me to knock something out that day.

Somehow during the holidays I ended up with 4 consecutive days on the BikeErg for the first time in a while. I realised I hadn't gone for the 7 and 14 days in a row badges on Zwift, so that dovetails nicely with the 20 day Stretch challenge here, as well as piling up some metres for the VTC (8 out of 14 done up to yesterday). I'm trying to get the rhythm going before the usual busy Feb / March work cycle takes over, so that I don't lose too much momentum.

Dave

[jackarabit]

Teams help us avoid calling in sick to hobby when we need to get away from it all and indulge our work.—Bass Ackward

[faach1]

Just looked on the ctc website and seen that Dirk Moller has posted a time for the first time in a while. To quote a Take That song is he “back for good?”

[skkipper]

The full list of teams can be found here
Our very latest scores and data can be found here

Hi Jon, can you explain how you are calculating projected meters? We are 13 days in and have less than 19 days left, so I would expect projected meters to be more than twice the meters rowed but it is not. I get close to the number left if I reverse the days in and the days left, but not exact.

[Marcvo17]

I think the math works...at least for my numbers.

Today is the 14th....so the model assumes we have completed 13 days with 18 days yet to go...for total of 31 days.

To-date I have 147,264 meters...over 13 days that is 11,238 per day (147,264/13). So with 18 days to go...assuming I continue to average 11,238 per day...that works out to 203,904 over the remaining 18 days (11,238 x 18)...which is what is the model is showing for my projected meters.

Where you might get confused...as I initially did...the “projected meters” is NOT for the full 31 day challenge...but just for the remainder of the challenge. The total for the challenge would be the sum of both columns. The other assumption in the calculation is that you have not yet rowed today...thus you really do have 18 exercise days left (and not only 17).

—Marc

[jackarabit]

The full list of teams can be found here
Our very latest scores and data can be found here

Hi Jon, can you explain how you are calculating projected meters? We are 13 days in and have less than 19 days left, so I would expect projected meters to be more than twice the meters rowed but it is not. I get close to the number left if I reverse the days in and the days left, but not exact.

I would have guessed algorithmia caused by a brain fart problem? Or too much free spirits. I am a simple soul who assumes challenge projected meters to be projected total meters. I can do it myself as average daily dose x (31- regular rest days) or weekly mileage x 4 without removing my shoes . Illness, injury and death make the projection approach or reach zero.

I appreciate Marc’s conjecture. We should all attempt to sound the depths of minds possibly sounder and certainly more complex than our own.

[skkipper]

I think the math works...at least for my numbers.

Today is the 14th....so the model assumes we have completed 13 days with 18 days yet to go...for total of 31 days.

To-date I have 147,264 meters...over 13 days that is 11,238 per day (147,264/13). So with 18 days to go...assuming I continue to average 11,238 per day...that works out to 203,904 over the remaining 18 days (11,238 x 18)...which is what is the model is showing for my projected meters.

Where you might get confused...as I initially did...the “projected meters” is NOT for the full 31 day challenge...but just for the remainder of the challenge. The total for the challenge would be the sum of both columns. The other assumption in the calculation is that you have not yet rowed today...thus you really do have 18 exercise days left (and not only 17).

—Marc

Ahh yes, you are right. I assumed it was total projected meters and not additional projected meters.

[Slothful1]

I had also assumed it was the forecast end total, and hadn't noticed the issue until Sheena pointed it out. I was wondering if it had something to do with using the last x days as a moving average for the future estimate, but the solution is simpler although less intuitive.

I was wondering about popping Jon a message about this, but any projection method is going to be flawed, so maybe better to leave it as it is. A number of people will be more erratic with their contributions, so using cumulative averages or shorter-term moving averages could still be wildly off.

Either way, well done to the big accumulators moving up the table, and keeping me fighting for a spot in the top 10! And also for the whole team for keeping us well ahead of last year's finishing position so far.

Dave

[jackarabit]

JonT himself has characterized certain of the FSR challenge metrics as “. . . of dubious value” on this forum. (search posts by _____)

I doubt if he will evidence surprise at our confusion.

If you or yours are not familiar with the FSR mentosphere but desire to know more, become a member of their forum. I am. Several useful performance metrics formulae and sprdshts on tap there—including the stats line generator used by yt. (See below)

[JonT]

Hi Jon, can you explain how you are calculating projected meters? We are 13 days in and have less than 19 days left, so I would expect projected meters to be more than twice the meters rowed but it is not. I get close to the number left if I reverse the days in and the days left, but not exact.

Apologies all, I have been away from the forums for a few days and missed this. Luckily, one of the FreeSpirits pointed out the error of my ways. This was a silly mistake on my part. Marc was completely correct below, except it was a mistake not an intention. The page was showing “projected meters from today to the end of the challenge” rather than “projected meters for the challenge based on your daily average so far”.

This is now fixed.....I hope!

All the best for the rest of the challenge. Life is getting in the way of rowing at the moment so I’m not piling in as many meters as I would like. I’m enjoying the Zoom Ergos sessions though, which helps.

[Slothful1]

This is now fixed.....I hope!

Thanks Jon. I noticed the change when I refreshed last night - didn't double-check with a calculator, but certainly looked in the right ball park!

Dave

[Steff]

Two LWTs in our top boat, and both in the fastest 6 LWTs currently on the board = fine fine efforts

[faach1]

Two LWTs in our top boat, and both in the fastest 6 LWTs currently on the board = fine fine efforts

That’s a nice stat Stephen, hopefully Jon and I can keep this up!