Predicting My Marathon Pace.

[[old] FrankJ]

December was a very good rowing month for me with an age group HM record on the 18th. Since then I've been mostly following the Pete Plan to prepare for the CRASH-Bs. I'm not sure if it is helping my 2K speed but my long distance rowing seems to be improving. Yesterday I did an online 30 minute race. Not a particularly good effort as I did a bit of a fly and die. Still I ended up with a SB of 8126. <br /><br />Today there was a 60 minute online row. Figured I would use it as a long workout as my legs felt a little tired from yesterday's effort. Eckart took off from the start and at first I tried to stay with him but didn't have much heart in the effort so I backed off a bit. Once I settled down to a 1:55 or so pace I start watching my HR. It was 139 and increasing slowly. What if I kept my HR below 145? How fast could I row for an hour with my HR in the low 140s? Well I did 15568 meters (1:55.6 pace) for the hour with an average ending HR of 143. <br /><br />Now here is where the question comes in. If I can row an hour @ 1:55.6 with my HR 143 can I do the same thing for a marathon. If I did about 1:56 pace for the marathon that would be a little over 2:43 which would be a PB by 4 minutes. Seems a little aggressive but the row this morning sure felt easy. With my HR at 143 I'm not even breathing that hard. The only thing that bothers me is that I've never tried to use this method to predict my marathon pace. Am I missing something here or should I go out a schedule a marathon for next weekend while I'm still on the peak?<br /><br />Frank

[[old] FrancoisA]

<!--QuoteBegin-FrankJ+Jan 1 2006, 05:10 PM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><div class='genmed'><b>QUOTE(FrankJ @ Jan 1 2006, 05:10 PM)</b></div></td></tr><tr><td class='quote'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Now here is where the question comes in. If I can row an hour @ 1:55.6 with my HR 143 can I do the same thing for a marathon. If I did about 1:56 pace for the marathon that would be a little over 2:43 which would be a PB by 4 minutes. Seems a little aggressive but the row this morning sure felt easy. With my HR at 143 I'm not even breathing that hard. The only thing that bothers me is that I've never tried to use this method to predict my marathon pace. Am I missing something here or should I go out a schedule a marathon for next weekend while I'm still on the peak?<br /><br />Frank <br /> </td></tr></table><br />Hi Frank,<br /><br />Based on your recent HM of 1:19:53 at an average pace of 1:53.6 your predicted pace for the marathon, following Paul Smith's rule of "double the distance add 3", would be 1:56.6 (2:44). This seems quite consistent, and might even be a little pessimistic, with your comfortable 1 hour row at 1:56.<br />My suggestion is to go for it! <br /> <br />Good luck and happy New Year!<br /><br />Francois

[[old] PaulS]

<!--QuoteBegin-FrancoisA+Jan 1 2006, 09:35 AM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><div class='genmed'><b>QUOTE(FrancoisA @ Jan 1 2006, 09:35 AM)</b></div></td></tr><tr><td class='quote'><!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin-FrankJ+Jan 1 2006, 05:10 PM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><div class='genmed'><b>QUOTE(FrankJ @ Jan 1 2006, 05:10 PM)</b></div></td></tr><tr><td class='quote'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Now here is where the question comes in. If I can row an hour @ 1:55.6 with my HR 143 can I do the same thing for a marathon. If I did about 1:56 pace for the marathon that would be a little over 2:43 which would be a PB by 4 minutes. Seems a little aggressive but the row this morning sure felt easy. With my HR at 143 I'm not even breathing that hard. The only thing that bothers me is that I've never tried to use this method to predict my marathon pace. Am I missing something here or should I go out a schedule a marathon for next weekend while I'm still on the peak?<br /><br />Frank <br /> </td></tr></table><br />Hi Frank,<br /><br />Based on your recent HM of 1:19:53 at an average pace of 1:53.6 your predicted pace for the marathon, following Paul Smith's rule of "double the distance add 3", would be 1:56.6 (2:44). This seems quite consistent, and might even be a little pessimistic, with your comfortable 1 hour row at 1:56.<br />My suggestion is to go for it! <br /> <br />Good luck and happy New Year!<br /><br />Francois <br /> </td></tr></table><br /><br />I'm actually a bit more pessimistic than that, "Double the distance, add 5", the "Double the D add 3" is a concoction of Rangers, and migth be more representative of either lwt, or those that have greater endurace than strength in their fitness balance.<br /><br />All the best in going after that new PB. <br />

[[old] FrancoisA]

<!--QuoteBegin-PaulS+Jan 1 2006, 06:15 PM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><div class='genmed'><b>QUOTE(PaulS @ Jan 1 2006, 06:15 PM)</b></div></td></tr><tr><td class='quote'><!--QuoteEBegin-->I'm actually a bit more pessimistic than that, "Double the distance, add 5", the "Double the D add 3" is a concoction of Rangers, and migth be more representative of either lwt, or those that have greater endurace than strength in their fitness balance. <br /> </td></tr></table><br /><br />Paul,<br /><br />I still think that "double the D add 3" would be more in line with Frank's past performances.<br />For instance, his 5k PB is at a 1:49.3 pace, while his 10k is at 1:50.9.<br />Similarly, his 30 min is at 1:51.3 pace, while his 60 min is at 1:53.5.<br /><br />BTW, those are impressive achievements! <br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />Francois

[[old] FrankJ]

Thanks guys. I will go for it but now I have some scheduling problems to work out. The ideal time would be next weekend but I have to work that weekend. That means my time window is a lot tighter. I may have to wait 2 weeks. <br /><br />Another interesting aspect to today's row is that I had a really cool room. To start it was 60F and I opened 3 windows with the outside temperature at 20F. By the end of the row the room was at 57F and I was feeling very comfortable and not sweating excessively. Of course the Cbreeze helps too. I know from the summer and fall racing series that my optimal time of the day to start a race is 9:00Am or 10:00AM and today we started at 10:00AM. <br /><br />Sounds like I have the plan now to fit it into my schedule.<br /><br />Frank<br />

[[old] H_2O]

You don't need to add 5 if you double up from a HM.<br /><br />I would split HM+2 for the first 25K of the marathon, then take down the pace a little with the intent<br />to pick it back up with 10K to go. This takes into account the fact that your drinking strategy on the HM was not optimal.<br /><br />The most important point is not to lose time drinking!!!!<br />You must keep rowing while you drink.<br />To be able to do this you need (several) very thin squeeze bottles.<br />If they are very thin you can hold the handle and the bottle at the same time.<br />I would put in liquid carbohydrates, you need fuel.<br />You must not take any breaks.<br />No matter what pain befalls you, grin and bear it but keep rowing.<br /><br />I have found out that I have to start at target+3 and bring the pace to target (HM+2) within about<br />4-5 mins (let the pace establish itself naturally). <br />If I take it to target split to quickly it never is a good row.<br /><br />I would also be very careful with the temperature.<br />I have become too cold on marathons (after 2 hours).<br />I would not want a seabreeze to blow on myself with ambient temperature of 50F while soaked in sweat.<br /><br />Best of luck.<br />2:44 is possible.

[[old] holm188]

Frank,<br />Did you try to put your numbers into this spreadsheet and see what it gives you for the marathon?<br /><br /><a href='http://www.steveviney.force9.co.uk/pace_prediction6.xls' target='_blank'>http://www.steveviney.force9.co.uk/pace ... xls</a><br /><br />Cheers, Holm

[[old] FrankJ]

<!--QuoteBegin-holm188+Jan 2 2006, 04:32 AM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><div class='genmed'><b>QUOTE(holm188 @ Jan 2 2006, 04:32 AM)</b></div></td></tr><tr><td class='quote'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Frank,<br />Did you try to put your numbers into this spreadsheet and see what it gives you for the marathon?<br /><br /><a href='http://www.steveviney.force9.co.uk/pace_prediction6.xls' target='_blank'>http://www.steveviney.force9.co.uk/pace ... xls</a><br /><br />Cheers, Holm <br /> </td></tr></table><br /><br />Holm,<br /><br />I've used the spreadsheet and it predicts a 2:45:28 (1:57.6) for my marathon on the most aggressive plot. It also predicts a 1:20:54.6 (1:55.1) for my HM which is actually 1:19:53.7 (1:53.6) a pace difference of 1.5 seconds. Use that same difference on the marathon prediction and get a 2:43:17.7 (1:56.1). <br /><br />Another confirmation that 1:56 or so should be my new goal pace.<br /><br />Frank

[[old] FrankJ]

<!--QuoteBegin-H_2O+Jan 2 2006, 03:21 AM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><div class='genmed'><b>QUOTE(H_2O @ Jan 2 2006, 03:21 AM)</b></div></td></tr><tr><td class='quote'><!--QuoteEBegin-->You don't need to add 5 if you double up from a HM.<br /><br />I would split HM+2 for the first 25K of the marathon, then take down the pace a little with the intent<br />to pick it back up with 10K to go. This takes into account the fact that your drinking strategy on the HM was not optimal.<br /><br />The most important point is not to lose time drinking!!!!<br />You must keep rowing while you drink.<br />To be able to do this you need (several) very thin squeeze bottles.<br />If they are very thin you can hold the handle and the bottle at the same time.<br />I would put in liquid carbohydrates, you need fuel.<br />You must not take any breaks.<br />No matter what pain befalls you, grin and bear it but keep rowing.<br /><br />I have found out that I have to start at target+3 and bring the pace to target (HM+2) within about<br />4-5 mins (let the pace establish itself naturally). <br />If I take it to target split to quickly it never is a good row.<br /><br />I would also be very careful with the temperature.<br />I have become too cold on marathons (after 2 hours).<br />I would not want a seabreeze to blow on myself with ambient temperature of 50F while soaked in sweat.<br /><br />Best of luck.<br />2:44 is possible. <br /> </td></tr></table><br /><br />H_2O<br /><br />I usually don't respond to anonymous posters especially when the posting espouses some technical expertise. It would be nice to know your credentials. <br /><br />I've never worried about adding 5 as a pace predictor as I realized quite a while ago that it doesn't work for me. <br /><br />While I do drink a lot during a marathon I can row one handed at about 2:20 - 2:30 pace while I'm drinking so I do not stop. I occasionally stop to change my seat pad if my butt starts being a pain but that is just a 2 or 3 second stop at most. <br /><br />I have been using Cytomax after experimenting with it in really how weather. Works great for me. I actually start drinking it about an hour before the race starts. <br /><br />I will most likely start around 1:56.5 pace and let it increase slowly watching my HR to make sure it doesn't climb too quickly. I agree that a slow approach to the target pace is the best. When I feel like I am on target I will try to let myself mentally disconnect from watching the details and just row in the groove. That is the best way to row a marathon instead of worrying about every stroke. If I'm on target at half way and feel like there is a lot left I will most likely pick it up. <br /><br />Room temperature is key to making it work for me. I'm an extremely heavy sweater but if I can get the room cool enough it will cut my dehydration considerably. Especially after the 60 minute row I'm thinking that 57F is right around perfect for me. It should be pretty easy to control this time of the year with the ability to open and close windows and really cold outside temperatures. With the room cool enough I should be able to drink less often as I will not be sweating as much as I normally do.<br /><br />Frank<br /><br /><br /><br />