Personal best split-per-distance estimation tool?

[lancecampeau]

Hello Everyone:

First post.... I've been rowing for about 6 months and I'm looking for a specific metric comparison tool that I have not yet found... Here it is in a nutshell... I want a personal best split-per-distance estimation tool where you can plug in your age/sex/weight and a minimum of 2 of your personal best times and have it rough estimate a target 500m split or time for all ranked distances currently recorded on the Concept2 logbook website...

Example: After giving my age, sex & weight (and adaptive level if applicable) I then plug in a minimum of 2 personal best times. In this case I have selected the 1k & 5K distances. Once that is done, the estimation tool then fills in the rest of the table based on your specific numbers. The more distances you enter, the more accurate the estimation would be.

SEX: M
AGE: 43
WEIGHT: 235 lbs
ADAPTIVE:NA

PB 100m average split/time- X
PB 1 min average split/time - X
PB 500m average split/time - X
PB 1000m average split/time - 1:37.7 / 3:15.5
PB 4 min average split/time - X
PB 2000m average split/time of X
PB 5000m average split/time - 1:52.5 / 18:45.7
PB 30 min average split/time - X
PB 10000m average split/time - X
PB 60 min average split/time - X
PB 21097m average split/time - X
PB 42195m average split/time - X
PB 100000m average split/time - X

SOLVE FOR X

The tool could make use of published average times per age, sex, weight and adaptive categories.

I think this would be a very useful and motivating training tool for rowers of all ages that want to gauge/estimate/project their potential performance levels for multiple distances.

Has anyone developed this idea already?

[Citroen]

http://www.freespiritsrowing.com/forum/ ... -predictor

[bisqeet]

thats not too innacurate.
i used 5k and 10k times and the HM/FM were pretty much spot on.
seems i#m an underachiever on the 2k though... who would have guessed...

[lancecampeau]

http://www.freespiritsrowing.com/forum/ ... -predictor

Exactly what I was looking for. Thank you!

Now, unfortunately for me, after plugging in my PB 100m and half marathon times, this tool is confirming my own calculation for a 2k best pace of 1:41.4 which seems pretty daunting I have to say... my 5k, 6k and 10k PB's are not yet at the level the tool is projecting but they seem obtainable with another 6 months of training. My half marathon was a MAX effort alright, something just worked that day. I'm hoping to do the marathon this year and somewhere around 3 hours would be satisfying.... that being said, any time will do, as long as I can finish the damm thing! Hitting the 8k in 30 min seems a bit too much for now... maybe next year.

Rowing times.jpg (75.28 KiB) Viewed 14960 times

[bisqeet]

the only weekness is which distances are used for the estimation imo.

A lot depends on your current level of fitness.
the 100m distance you picked doesn't really say anything about your fitness, it being based on more or less raw strength. the longer the distance the more aerobic fitness is required.

Theoretically at a good fitness level you should be able to pull a constant spi throughout the whole zone. only variating factor would be the spm. Its best to ignore sprints for this.


i.e.
5k pace divided by average spm (numbers are not mine, but picked for easier maths)
1:49 / 500 average spm 27=> 270W/27 = 10W/Stroke

10k
1:52 / 500 average spm 25=> 250W/25 = 10W /Stroke

expected 2k time at 30 spm of:
10x30=300W = 1:45/500 split = 7:00


basically - if you can't keep the same spi accross the board - its your fitness not your strength thats lacking...

you're welcome to use this, but i only made it for calculating l4 type rows based on watts

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?res ... N0dgHkspbs

[jamesg]

Simplest is to create a log-log Watt/Distance graph (or maybe linear W, log metres), using any two results, then see where the others fall. Best avoid predictions if we don't want to get in the self-fulfilling prophecy trap: the point is to go faster, or at least see progress.

[lancecampeau]

bump.... I come back to this post 5 times a week looking for that weblink...

[jamesg]

A Watt - meter graph in excel, maybe with log meters, will show a straight line, more or less. Just update the numbers as it happens.
Fitness progress can be judged from ½/5 k or ½/2 k Watt ratio. The C2 logbook can give an idea of what's possible.